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Busted Tires
by Josh Lobdell on January 09 2008
As NASCAR fantasy owners get ready for 2008, I will use this article to give my insight into the biggest busts of the upcoming season.
Most of this is based on the most important rule for NASCAR fantasy players to know: the Top-35 rule. The top-35 teams in owner points are guaranteed a starting spot each week. For the first five races of `08 these 35 positions are determined by the season ending point totals from 2007.
It is crucial that fantasy owners know who is in and out of the top-35 each week. Your team probably will not do well if you put a driver on your roster that is not guaranteed a starting spot that week. With that in mind, here is my list of drivers to avoid.
1. No. 21 Marcus Ambrose, Ford -- The famous Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 is in for a very long season, as they have slipped from the top-35 in owner points, and are counting on two rookies to try and right the ship. Although veteran Gene Nead is coming in to crew chief the two-headed rookie monster, this has failure written all over it. This team has not won a race in several seasons, and has not run competitively the last two; turning the car over to a pair of rookies isn`t going to work, no matter how talented they are. They would be better served to let Kenny Schrader try to make races each week, and have their two talented youngsters run the full Nationwide Series again.
2. No. 27 Jacques Villenueve, Toyota -- Villenueve is a very talented open wheel racer -- I have no doubt that he will run well on the road courses. The problem is that only two of the 36 races on the Cup schedule are road courses. Bill Davis Racing has barely been able to keep their main car, No. 22 Dave Blaney, running competitively, so I have no confidence that this team can make any sort of run. They will start the year outside the 35 guaranteed starting spots and struggle to make races, much like last year. Not even talented Crew Chief Richard `Slugger` Labbe will be able to do much with this team.
3. Penske Racing South -- Penske will try to expand to a three car operation this year, even though they`ve had a difficult time making two cars competitive. I have no idea how they think stretching their resources over three cars will help improve their team. No. 2 Kurt Busch and Crew Chief Pat Tryson should run well, even though they are giving up their 2007 points to No. 77 Sam Hornish. That move guarantees Hornish a spot in the first five races; Busch should be able to make those races on speed. The wild card is No. 12 Ryan Newman. He is a very talented driver who has former Busch Crew Chief Roy McCauley taking over. Since Matt Borland left Penske at the end of 2006, the team has not been able to win. Sure they had several strong runs last year, but their resources are now being stretched thin -- which usually does not translate into success on the track.
4. No. 45 Kyle Petty, Dodge -- As it stands right now Petty ranks 35th in owner points, getting him into the first five races of the new season. The problem is that there are several teams behind him that made improvements ready to knock him out of that spot. Since NASCAR has approved the points transfer from the No. 2 to the No. 77 Penske Dodges, Petty now has to outrun Busch to stay in the top-35 -- that is just not going to happen. More then likely we are going to witness Petty`s final Cup season.
5. No. 28 Travis Kvapil, Ford -- Yates Racing has been in a free fall since the mid-way point of `06. Even though this is now essentially Roush Racing 2, this team is going to struggle mightily. Sure Kvapil had a great run in the No. 6 Roush truck last season, but he has already washed out twice at the Cup level. He is going to be teamed with Crew Chief Cully Barraclough, who moves up from the Yates` Nationwide team. They will be in Roush equipment, but a driver who has already flamed out twice and a less than experienced crew chief is not how one earns Cup success. This team will start the season 30th on owners points; not good considering Busch, at least one of the Team Red Bull cars and possibly one of Michael Waltrip`s cars will get themselves into the top-35, leaving the status of the 28 car in doubt. My guess is that they will be at the bottom end of the top-35, hoping to make the race each week.
Most of this is based on the most important rule for NASCAR fantasy players to know: the Top-35 rule. The top-35 teams in owner points are guaranteed a starting spot each week. For the first five races of `08 these 35 positions are determined by the season ending point totals from 2007.
It is crucial that fantasy owners know who is in and out of the top-35 each week. Your team probably will not do well if you put a driver on your roster that is not guaranteed a starting spot that week. With that in mind, here is my list of drivers to avoid.
1. No. 21 Marcus Ambrose, Ford -- The famous Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 is in for a very long season, as they have slipped from the top-35 in owner points, and are counting on two rookies to try and right the ship. Although veteran Gene Nead is coming in to crew chief the two-headed rookie monster, this has failure written all over it. This team has not won a race in several seasons, and has not run competitively the last two; turning the car over to a pair of rookies isn`t going to work, no matter how talented they are. They would be better served to let Kenny Schrader try to make races each week, and have their two talented youngsters run the full Nationwide Series again.
2. No. 27 Jacques Villenueve, Toyota -- Villenueve is a very talented open wheel racer -- I have no doubt that he will run well on the road courses. The problem is that only two of the 36 races on the Cup schedule are road courses. Bill Davis Racing has barely been able to keep their main car, No. 22 Dave Blaney, running competitively, so I have no confidence that this team can make any sort of run. They will start the year outside the 35 guaranteed starting spots and struggle to make races, much like last year. Not even talented Crew Chief Richard `Slugger` Labbe will be able to do much with this team.
3. Penske Racing South -- Penske will try to expand to a three car operation this year, even though they`ve had a difficult time making two cars competitive. I have no idea how they think stretching their resources over three cars will help improve their team. No. 2 Kurt Busch and Crew Chief Pat Tryson should run well, even though they are giving up their 2007 points to No. 77 Sam Hornish. That move guarantees Hornish a spot in the first five races; Busch should be able to make those races on speed. The wild card is No. 12 Ryan Newman. He is a very talented driver who has former Busch Crew Chief Roy McCauley taking over. Since Matt Borland left Penske at the end of 2006, the team has not been able to win. Sure they had several strong runs last year, but their resources are now being stretched thin -- which usually does not translate into success on the track.
4. No. 45 Kyle Petty, Dodge -- As it stands right now Petty ranks 35th in owner points, getting him into the first five races of the new season. The problem is that there are several teams behind him that made improvements ready to knock him out of that spot. Since NASCAR has approved the points transfer from the No. 2 to the No. 77 Penske Dodges, Petty now has to outrun Busch to stay in the top-35 -- that is just not going to happen. More then likely we are going to witness Petty`s final Cup season.
5. No. 28 Travis Kvapil, Ford -- Yates Racing has been in a free fall since the mid-way point of `06. Even though this is now essentially Roush Racing 2, this team is going to struggle mightily. Sure Kvapil had a great run in the No. 6 Roush truck last season, but he has already washed out twice at the Cup level. He is going to be teamed with Crew Chief Cully Barraclough, who moves up from the Yates` Nationwide team. They will be in Roush equipment, but a driver who has already flamed out twice and a less than experienced crew chief is not how one earns Cup success. This team will start the season 30th on owners points; not good considering Busch, at least one of the Team Red Bull cars and possibly one of Michael Waltrip`s cars will get themselves into the top-35, leaving the status of the 28 car in doubt. My guess is that they will be at the bottom end of the top-35, hoping to make the race each week.
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