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Bold Predictions
by Chris Bracke on January 10 2008
As fantasy owners, we comb over projections and predictions ad nauseam. When it comes to winning championships, hitting on the boldest prognostications can be the difference between winning and losing. What follows is a few of my bold predictions for the upcoming season that are sure to have an impact on your league`s race for the trophy. Some are more attainable goals than others, but none should be overlooked, as they could shed light on players or situations all fantasy owners should be aware of heading into their drafts.
RANGERS THIRD BASEMAN HANK BLALOCK TRIPLES HIS 2007 HR TOTAL
I`d hardly blame fantasy owners for being out of patience with Blalock after a string of disappointing seasons. After hitting 32 homers in 2004, he proceeded to club just 51 over the next three seasons combined, thus earning a place on the bust list of those who invested in him. The decline had a little something to do with him missing 113 games over the last two seasons due to significant shoulder problems. After returning from surgery in September, he put up encouraging numbers to the tune of five dingers, 12 runs and 17 RBI in 64 at bats. So why should we believe he`ll keep up that pace this season? First, we have to assume that his shoulder injury was at least partly to blame for his struggles because he put up impressive numbers when healthy in 2003 and 2004. Then we have to remember the extensive research that suggests most hitters enjoy breakout seasons between the age of 25 and 27, which applies to 27-year-old Hammerin` Hank. If that isn`t enough, the Rangers` lineup improved with the offseason addition of Josh Hamilton, so Blalock should have some protection in the middle of the order. If you add up all the factors, it really doesn`t seem far fetched to suggest Blalock is capable of tripling last season`s paltry home run total of 10.
ROCKIES OUTFIELDER WILLY TAVERAS SWIPES 60 BAGS
Of all the predictions you see on this list, this one is probably the most likely to occur. That`s because even though Taveras hasn`t stolen more than 34 bases in any of his four major league seasons, he swiped 33 in just 97 games last year. On top of that, he was making more consistent contact with the ball in the second half of the 2007 season, which combined with an upward trend in his on-base percentage, shows he`s getting on base more often; therefore leading to more opportunities to pilfer bases. If you don`t believe he`ll be running once he reaches first base, consider that the Rockies have been steadily trending upward in regards to team stolen base attempts over the last three seasons, going from 23rd in the league in 2005 to 13th last year. If his health cooperates, he should have very little problem making a run at 60 steals for an impressive young Rockies club.
BLUE JAYS SECOND BASEMAN AARON HILL LEADS SECOND BASEMAN IN HOMERS
Second base has long been one of those positions in fantasy baseball in which the drop off in talent is pronounced, and while the pool doesn`t seem as shallow as it was in previous years, it still is important to get the biggest bang for your buck. You won`t be disappointed in the numbers Chase Utley or Robinson Cano will put up, but think about what you could do with the extra money you saved by investing $10 less in your starting second baseman ... say in someone like Hill? He isn`t at that magical age of 27, but he`s coming off an impressive finish to the 2007 season in which he hit .320 and drove in 30 runs in 291 at bats after the All-Star break. What about home runs you ask? Only seven second baseman hit more long balls than him last season, which is a sign of progress that is sure to continue this coming year. After all, his doubles spiked and he was hitting more fly balls last season, both signs of maturing power skills. It`s true that where he hits in the lineup is a big consideration in the number of opportunities he`ll get to swing for the fences this season, but all indications are that he won`t be moved up into the leadoff role, which bodes well for him to flex his line drive stroke to deposit more rawhide over the fence.
ASTROS CATCHER J.R. TOWLES LEADS NL CATCHERS IN RUNS SCORED
If you managed to miss Towles` impressive late-season audition, the only explanation can be your fantasy team had called it a year before Sept. 20th. Why the 20th? That was the game in which Towles set a franchise record by driving in eight runs against the division rival Cardinals. Some scouts have compared the backstop`s bat speed to Utley, and teammates have recognized Towles ability behind the plate as above average. While his defense obviously doesn`t matter much to fantasy owners, it`s precisely that which will secure him a spot in the majors. In fact, the huge night against the Cards started a stretch in which he had at least one hit in eight of his last nine games. Despite a lack of significant at bats at the upper levels of the minor leagues, he possesses great plate discipline, makes good contact and didn`t appear overmatched during a 14-game trial last September. What fantasy owners should consider here is that he could be hitting in an improved lineup that really isn`t getting as much hype as it deserves. The lineup includes familiar faces like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and offseason additions such as Miguel Tejada, Michael Bourn and Kaz Matsui, giving the `Stros plenty of quality to surround the rookie catcher. A prediction like this one will depend a lot on where manager Cecil Cooper pencils Towles into the lineup, but with those proven hitters behind him, it`s not difficult to imagine him leading National League catchers in runs, with the Dodgers` Russell Martin being the only significant threat to that prognostication.
ORIOLES RELIEVER JAMES HOEY SAVES 30 GAMES
The Orioles have ranked in the bottom third of the league in save opportunities in each of the last three seasons, yet produced a 30-save closer in two of them. Even if the birds show a commitment to rebuilding and ship pitcher Erik Bedard and second baseman Brian Roberts to the highest bidder, they`ll still win enough games to produce a significant number of save opportunities. Don`t take my word for it. The research of Sabermetric genius Bill James has suggested that on every major league team there will be at least 30 saves to go around, and it`s not unlikely that number climbs closer to 45. The candidates to pick up the majority of those chances are not as plentiful as one might think. Former closers Danys Baez and Chris Ray are expected to miss the majority of the 2008 season following Tommy John surgery. Then there is Jaime Walker and Chad Bradford, who despite having significant major league innings under their belt, have their reasons for not being used as the closer -- one is a lefty and the other has an unconventional delivery. James also suggests that 50 percent of the available saves in a season will come from relievers who went undrafted on draft day. Hoey`s numbers last season suggest he`ll be an afterthought during your draft.
The 25-year-old flame throwing Hoey is a very intriguing contender for the closer role despite a 3-4 record, 7.30 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and putrid 1.0 K:BB ratio in 24.2 major league innings last season. That was a far cry from his 16 saves, 0.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 4.9 K:BB ratio and 13.9 K/9IP in 45.2 combined minor league innings. We can hope he learned the adjustments needed after his first taste of the big leagues, as he certainly has the skill set to emerge as the closer in Baltimore in a season that they`ll be searching for the best man for the role.
BREWERS HURLER YOVANI GALLARDO LEADS THE NL IN VICTORIES
For the first four months of the 2007 season, the Brewers had a pretty firm grip on the NL Central. Then they faded, and eventually missed out on the playoffs after an extremely positive season. One of the better developments was the arrival of the future All-Star, Gallardo, who went 8-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 86.1 innings after the All-Star break. To put that into perspective, the win total was good enough for eighth in the league post-midseason classic.
There are a couple reasons to be optimistic that this is just the tip of the iceberg. Beyond the history of dominance in the minors, he posted a 2.73 K:BB ratio and 8.3 K/9IP in 110.1 major league innings, both positive signs for future growth. He was able to win nine games in 17 starts last season, but your typical front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher will make around 33 starts per season, health cooperating. That would suggest that if he`s able to cut down on fly ball outs and induce more grounders, he is capable of winning many of those games assuming his team provides strong offensive support -- something that certainly applies in the Brewers case. All these factors make it easier to believe the young brew master makes enough starts to win as many as 10 additional games this season, which given the direction his promising career is heading, should push him to the top of the league in the win department.
BLUE JAYS PITCHER DUSTIN MCGOWAN OUTPITCHES TEAMMATE ROY HALLADAY IN ALL FOUR ROTO CATS
Sometimes in life, timing is everything. Baseball is no different, as there is no definitive timetable for players to develop. McGowan was the Blue Jays top prospect in two of the last four years according to Baseball America, but it took a little longer for D-Mac to bloom, as he put things together two years after making his major league debut. While Halladay remains the ace north of the border, it`s clear that pitchers like Shaun Marcum and McGowan are the future. Let`s play a little game in which you pick which pitcher belongs to each of the following post-All-Star break lines. Pitcher A went 6-4 with a 3.02 ERA, 5.5 K/9IP, and a 1.22 WHIP and Pitcher B went 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA, 8.0 K/9IP, and 1.14 WHIP. Give up? Pitcher A is Halladay and Pitcher B is McGowan. The only stat D-Mac didn`t best Doc Halladay in was ERA, the worst stat in the game of baseball considering it is dependent upon so many other variables than simply the pitcher`s performance. The fact of the matter is that Halladay -- on the downside of his career -- is seeing his walk total climb and has thrown at least 220 innings in each of the last two seasons. The risks are clear with the veteran and while McGowan certainly needs to prove he can succeed over more than one season, he`s a far better risk to take on draft day.
ROYALS PITCHER ZACK GREINKE DOUBLES HIS 2007 WIN TOTAL
Over the last five years the Royals have had only three pitchers finish a season with double digits in the win column. That`s not far from the number of people who actually saw the 2002 Eddie Murphy comedy `The Adventures of Pluto Nash` in the movie theater. While that was 95 minutes the moviegoers will never get back, Murphy has made up for it with other performances. In much the same way, the 24-year-old Greinke has gone full circle from promising prospect, to dealing with clinical depression, back to promising young hurler. Interestingly enough, he posted an ERA higher than 3.75 in just one month last season, struck out 8.1 batters per nine innings after the All-Star break and won seven games. In making this prediction, I`m not counting on him getting consistent run support because after all, these are the Royals we`re talking about. Don`t blow off Kansas City, however, as they clearly have promising young players in their offense -- like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler -- that should help the team improve in coming years. While that may not happen this season, it`s worth noting that Greinke may not need that much help to be successful. After all, the only AL Central team he struggled against in 2007 was the Tigers. The bottom line is if he can cut down the number of fly balls he gives up and continue to strike hitters out while limiting his walks, there is no question he has the stuff to take the next step.
RANGERS THIRD BASEMAN HANK BLALOCK TRIPLES HIS 2007 HR TOTAL
I`d hardly blame fantasy owners for being out of patience with Blalock after a string of disappointing seasons. After hitting 32 homers in 2004, he proceeded to club just 51 over the next three seasons combined, thus earning a place on the bust list of those who invested in him. The decline had a little something to do with him missing 113 games over the last two seasons due to significant shoulder problems. After returning from surgery in September, he put up encouraging numbers to the tune of five dingers, 12 runs and 17 RBI in 64 at bats. So why should we believe he`ll keep up that pace this season? First, we have to assume that his shoulder injury was at least partly to blame for his struggles because he put up impressive numbers when healthy in 2003 and 2004. Then we have to remember the extensive research that suggests most hitters enjoy breakout seasons between the age of 25 and 27, which applies to 27-year-old Hammerin` Hank. If that isn`t enough, the Rangers` lineup improved with the offseason addition of Josh Hamilton, so Blalock should have some protection in the middle of the order. If you add up all the factors, it really doesn`t seem far fetched to suggest Blalock is capable of tripling last season`s paltry home run total of 10.
ROCKIES OUTFIELDER WILLY TAVERAS SWIPES 60 BAGS
Of all the predictions you see on this list, this one is probably the most likely to occur. That`s because even though Taveras hasn`t stolen more than 34 bases in any of his four major league seasons, he swiped 33 in just 97 games last year. On top of that, he was making more consistent contact with the ball in the second half of the 2007 season, which combined with an upward trend in his on-base percentage, shows he`s getting on base more often; therefore leading to more opportunities to pilfer bases. If you don`t believe he`ll be running once he reaches first base, consider that the Rockies have been steadily trending upward in regards to team stolen base attempts over the last three seasons, going from 23rd in the league in 2005 to 13th last year. If his health cooperates, he should have very little problem making a run at 60 steals for an impressive young Rockies club.
BLUE JAYS SECOND BASEMAN AARON HILL LEADS SECOND BASEMAN IN HOMERS
Second base has long been one of those positions in fantasy baseball in which the drop off in talent is pronounced, and while the pool doesn`t seem as shallow as it was in previous years, it still is important to get the biggest bang for your buck. You won`t be disappointed in the numbers Chase Utley or Robinson Cano will put up, but think about what you could do with the extra money you saved by investing $10 less in your starting second baseman ... say in someone like Hill? He isn`t at that magical age of 27, but he`s coming off an impressive finish to the 2007 season in which he hit .320 and drove in 30 runs in 291 at bats after the All-Star break. What about home runs you ask? Only seven second baseman hit more long balls than him last season, which is a sign of progress that is sure to continue this coming year. After all, his doubles spiked and he was hitting more fly balls last season, both signs of maturing power skills. It`s true that where he hits in the lineup is a big consideration in the number of opportunities he`ll get to swing for the fences this season, but all indications are that he won`t be moved up into the leadoff role, which bodes well for him to flex his line drive stroke to deposit more rawhide over the fence.
ASTROS CATCHER J.R. TOWLES LEADS NL CATCHERS IN RUNS SCORED
If you managed to miss Towles` impressive late-season audition, the only explanation can be your fantasy team had called it a year before Sept. 20th. Why the 20th? That was the game in which Towles set a franchise record by driving in eight runs against the division rival Cardinals. Some scouts have compared the backstop`s bat speed to Utley, and teammates have recognized Towles ability behind the plate as above average. While his defense obviously doesn`t matter much to fantasy owners, it`s precisely that which will secure him a spot in the majors. In fact, the huge night against the Cards started a stretch in which he had at least one hit in eight of his last nine games. Despite a lack of significant at bats at the upper levels of the minor leagues, he possesses great plate discipline, makes good contact and didn`t appear overmatched during a 14-game trial last September. What fantasy owners should consider here is that he could be hitting in an improved lineup that really isn`t getting as much hype as it deserves. The lineup includes familiar faces like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and offseason additions such as Miguel Tejada, Michael Bourn and Kaz Matsui, giving the `Stros plenty of quality to surround the rookie catcher. A prediction like this one will depend a lot on where manager Cecil Cooper pencils Towles into the lineup, but with those proven hitters behind him, it`s not difficult to imagine him leading National League catchers in runs, with the Dodgers` Russell Martin being the only significant threat to that prognostication.
ORIOLES RELIEVER JAMES HOEY SAVES 30 GAMES
The Orioles have ranked in the bottom third of the league in save opportunities in each of the last three seasons, yet produced a 30-save closer in two of them. Even if the birds show a commitment to rebuilding and ship pitcher Erik Bedard and second baseman Brian Roberts to the highest bidder, they`ll still win enough games to produce a significant number of save opportunities. Don`t take my word for it. The research of Sabermetric genius Bill James has suggested that on every major league team there will be at least 30 saves to go around, and it`s not unlikely that number climbs closer to 45. The candidates to pick up the majority of those chances are not as plentiful as one might think. Former closers Danys Baez and Chris Ray are expected to miss the majority of the 2008 season following Tommy John surgery. Then there is Jaime Walker and Chad Bradford, who despite having significant major league innings under their belt, have their reasons for not being used as the closer -- one is a lefty and the other has an unconventional delivery. James also suggests that 50 percent of the available saves in a season will come from relievers who went undrafted on draft day. Hoey`s numbers last season suggest he`ll be an afterthought during your draft.
The 25-year-old flame throwing Hoey is a very intriguing contender for the closer role despite a 3-4 record, 7.30 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and putrid 1.0 K:BB ratio in 24.2 major league innings last season. That was a far cry from his 16 saves, 0.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 4.9 K:BB ratio and 13.9 K/9IP in 45.2 combined minor league innings. We can hope he learned the adjustments needed after his first taste of the big leagues, as he certainly has the skill set to emerge as the closer in Baltimore in a season that they`ll be searching for the best man for the role.
BREWERS HURLER YOVANI GALLARDO LEADS THE NL IN VICTORIES
For the first four months of the 2007 season, the Brewers had a pretty firm grip on the NL Central. Then they faded, and eventually missed out on the playoffs after an extremely positive season. One of the better developments was the arrival of the future All-Star, Gallardo, who went 8-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 86.1 innings after the All-Star break. To put that into perspective, the win total was good enough for eighth in the league post-midseason classic.
There are a couple reasons to be optimistic that this is just the tip of the iceberg. Beyond the history of dominance in the minors, he posted a 2.73 K:BB ratio and 8.3 K/9IP in 110.1 major league innings, both positive signs for future growth. He was able to win nine games in 17 starts last season, but your typical front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher will make around 33 starts per season, health cooperating. That would suggest that if he`s able to cut down on fly ball outs and induce more grounders, he is capable of winning many of those games assuming his team provides strong offensive support -- something that certainly applies in the Brewers case. All these factors make it easier to believe the young brew master makes enough starts to win as many as 10 additional games this season, which given the direction his promising career is heading, should push him to the top of the league in the win department.
BLUE JAYS PITCHER DUSTIN MCGOWAN OUTPITCHES TEAMMATE ROY HALLADAY IN ALL FOUR ROTO CATS
Sometimes in life, timing is everything. Baseball is no different, as there is no definitive timetable for players to develop. McGowan was the Blue Jays top prospect in two of the last four years according to Baseball America, but it took a little longer for D-Mac to bloom, as he put things together two years after making his major league debut. While Halladay remains the ace north of the border, it`s clear that pitchers like Shaun Marcum and McGowan are the future. Let`s play a little game in which you pick which pitcher belongs to each of the following post-All-Star break lines. Pitcher A went 6-4 with a 3.02 ERA, 5.5 K/9IP, and a 1.22 WHIP and Pitcher B went 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA, 8.0 K/9IP, and 1.14 WHIP. Give up? Pitcher A is Halladay and Pitcher B is McGowan. The only stat D-Mac didn`t best Doc Halladay in was ERA, the worst stat in the game of baseball considering it is dependent upon so many other variables than simply the pitcher`s performance. The fact of the matter is that Halladay -- on the downside of his career -- is seeing his walk total climb and has thrown at least 220 innings in each of the last two seasons. The risks are clear with the veteran and while McGowan certainly needs to prove he can succeed over more than one season, he`s a far better risk to take on draft day.
ROYALS PITCHER ZACK GREINKE DOUBLES HIS 2007 WIN TOTAL
Over the last five years the Royals have had only three pitchers finish a season with double digits in the win column. That`s not far from the number of people who actually saw the 2002 Eddie Murphy comedy `The Adventures of Pluto Nash` in the movie theater. While that was 95 minutes the moviegoers will never get back, Murphy has made up for it with other performances. In much the same way, the 24-year-old Greinke has gone full circle from promising prospect, to dealing with clinical depression, back to promising young hurler. Interestingly enough, he posted an ERA higher than 3.75 in just one month last season, struck out 8.1 batters per nine innings after the All-Star break and won seven games. In making this prediction, I`m not counting on him getting consistent run support because after all, these are the Royals we`re talking about. Don`t blow off Kansas City, however, as they clearly have promising young players in their offense -- like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler -- that should help the team improve in coming years. While that may not happen this season, it`s worth noting that Greinke may not need that much help to be successful. After all, the only AL Central team he struggled against in 2007 was the Tigers. The bottom line is if he can cut down the number of fly balls he gives up and continue to strike hitters out while limiting his walks, there is no question he has the stuff to take the next step.
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