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Wounded Bird Falling
by Geoffrey Stein on January 31 2008
Coming off a fantasy football season that featured a significant amount of injuries to the game`s top players, it`s no surprise that mock drafters are being as cautious as possible with their early-round fantasy baseball selections.
The hesitation to draft an injured or injury-prone player has led to a huge dropoff in value for St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols.
A Jan. 22 St. Louis Post-Dispatch report that the slugger can`t bend his right elbow has sent shockwaves through the drafting community. In the article, Pujols is quoted as saying, "I was in pain. I was in pain. After May, I just felt it was hurting and it was hurting pretty bad. ... If that same problem is happening this year, I don`t think I`m going to play the whole year the same way. I sacrificed my body."
With the Cardinals poised to take a step backward in 2008, many believe Pujols will indeed shut himself down if the elbow problems return, a likely scenario considering the superstar opted for rest rather than surgery this offseason.
As a result, the former MVP`s value has taken a hit, with his Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position falling 16.2 percent in the week since the news hit the wire.
Not surprisingly, drafters are going for the surer thing. In this case, that`s a pair of New York Mets, shortstop Jose Reyes and third baseman David Wright, both of whom have jumped ahead of Pujols in the ADP to third and fourth overall respectively.
While his ADP currently sits at fifth, it isn`t rare to see Pujols fall to seventh, eighth or ninth overall.
Seeing the biggest gain in value from that drop is a trio of corner infielders: Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder.
Of the three, Cabrera is the one most likely to put up numbers similar to the Cardinals first baseman. With his move to the Tigers, many are expecting a Pujols-like line from the 24-year-old Venezuelan. That line will cover four of the five rotisserie categories with a .320-plus batting average, 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI and 100-plus runs scored.
At one time, there was a very good chance that Howard or Fielder would be available to the drafter with the No. 12 selection. That hasn`t been the case lately, though, as the powerful duo has seen an increase in their ADP.
One has to wonder if their rise has to do with the fall of Pujols, the No. 1 player at the first base position. Recent chatter has many wondering if Howard and Fielder are a better option to top the rankings, so the increase in value isn`t a surprise.
Since Pujols played the majority of last season injured without anyone knowing, it`s unlikely that his draft value will rebound to pre-report levels for one reason: there`s no telling how the elbow is feeling. He obviously won`t broadcast discomfort, and if a shutdown does happen, it`ll probably come from out of nowhere.
That puts drafters between a rock and a hard place: the rock being passing on a healthy Pujols who puts up his usual stellar numbers; the hard place being an early shutdown that costs a team the most valuable of selections.
One thing is certain: no matter where one is drafting, they should have a plan in place for a scenario that has Pujols available when their first-round pick rolls around -- the response to that situation could make or break a lot of fantasy seasons.
The hesitation to draft an injured or injury-prone player has led to a huge dropoff in value for St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols.
A Jan. 22 St. Louis Post-Dispatch report that the slugger can`t bend his right elbow has sent shockwaves through the drafting community. In the article, Pujols is quoted as saying, "I was in pain. I was in pain. After May, I just felt it was hurting and it was hurting pretty bad. ... If that same problem is happening this year, I don`t think I`m going to play the whole year the same way. I sacrificed my body."
With the Cardinals poised to take a step backward in 2008, many believe Pujols will indeed shut himself down if the elbow problems return, a likely scenario considering the superstar opted for rest rather than surgery this offseason.
As a result, the former MVP`s value has taken a hit, with his Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position falling 16.2 percent in the week since the news hit the wire.
Not surprisingly, drafters are going for the surer thing. In this case, that`s a pair of New York Mets, shortstop Jose Reyes and third baseman David Wright, both of whom have jumped ahead of Pujols in the ADP to third and fourth overall respectively.
While his ADP currently sits at fifth, it isn`t rare to see Pujols fall to seventh, eighth or ninth overall.
Seeing the biggest gain in value from that drop is a trio of corner infielders: Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder.
Of the three, Cabrera is the one most likely to put up numbers similar to the Cardinals first baseman. With his move to the Tigers, many are expecting a Pujols-like line from the 24-year-old Venezuelan. That line will cover four of the five rotisserie categories with a .320-plus batting average, 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI and 100-plus runs scored.
At one time, there was a very good chance that Howard or Fielder would be available to the drafter with the No. 12 selection. That hasn`t been the case lately, though, as the powerful duo has seen an increase in their ADP.
One has to wonder if their rise has to do with the fall of Pujols, the No. 1 player at the first base position. Recent chatter has many wondering if Howard and Fielder are a better option to top the rankings, so the increase in value isn`t a surprise.
Since Pujols played the majority of last season injured without anyone knowing, it`s unlikely that his draft value will rebound to pre-report levels for one reason: there`s no telling how the elbow is feeling. He obviously won`t broadcast discomfort, and if a shutdown does happen, it`ll probably come from out of nowhere.
That puts drafters between a rock and a hard place: the rock being passing on a healthy Pujols who puts up his usual stellar numbers; the hard place being an early shutdown that costs a team the most valuable of selections.
One thing is certain: no matter where one is drafting, they should have a plan in place for a scenario that has Pujols available when their first-round pick rolls around -- the response to that situation could make or break a lot of fantasy seasons.
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