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Holliday will provide first-round value for years to come
Holliday will provide first-round value for years to come

Dynasty in the Making

by Jason Sarney on February 06 2008
Last Thursday, the crew over at Mock Draft Central invited me to participate in their Initial Dynasty Mock Draft. Here are the particulars: 12 teams, 5x5 scoring and a starting line up of one 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI and DH, two Cs, five OFs and nine Ps (starting or relief).

I drew the fifth overall pick, and the moment I was given that selection, only one name jumped into my mind: David Wright, the New York Mets third baseman. I figured that starting my dynasty with a .320-plus average, 30-30 potential, and well over 100 RBI and runs was perfect for a first pick.

Then I realized this year`s draft (especially the top-five picks) could go in any number of different directions. With five legitimate contenders for the No. 1 overall pick, I was crossing my fingers hoping that I would land the 25-year-old, future National League MVP. Oh, by the way, that is my official 2008 NL MVP prediction, and I am sticking to it!

Unfortunately, I had to go to my contingency plan two picks before I heard those four words, "now...it`s your turn!"

Now...it`s baseball season!

Hanley Ramirez was the first player off the draft board, followed by Alex Rodriguez. The next pick was Wright, followed by his Mets teammate, Jose Reyes. Now what? No worries.

Round 1, Pick 5: Matt Holliday, OF, COL
I could do a whole lot worse at No. 5 than Holliday, who I have as the clear-cut top fantasy outfielder. Playing at Coors Field gives a major boost to his power numbers, as the vast majority of his long bombs come at home. I have no fear about road woes for Holliday, though, since he hit above .300 away from the friendly confines of Colorado. Home or away, I see him hitting closer to 40 bombs than 30 this season, and if he gets a few more steals, he could be next season`s No. 1 overall pick.

Round 2, Pick 20: Jake Peavy, SP, SD
I had Johan Santana targeted on the queue, although I knew in this draft room, no one would pass on him a pick or two into the second-round. He was selected 14th overall, and once again I found myself settling for my second choice. Let me ask if settling for the 2007 NL CY Young is a bad thing? Peavy led the NL in all the major pitching categories in 2007, notching 19 wins, posting a 2.54 ERA and utterly embarrassing 240 strikeout victims. I really don`t see a significant falloff in any of these numbers, although I can guarantee he won`t run the table in leading the league in all three. Welcome to the National League, Mr. Santana.

Round 3, Pick 29: Alex Rios, OF, TOR
My next selection was a tough pick. I could have gone a number of ways: maybe a strong corner infielder or middle infielder, maybe another ace pitcher. I delayed picking pitchers, temporarily, knowing I had an anchor to my staff in Peavy. I`ll admit I was close to taking Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels. Although there are not many better young keeper aces out there, I saw another youngster ready to maximize his potential this season, but on the offensive side. Rios is a "do it all" player, who will give me close to a .290 average and a very realistic chance at a 20-20 season. A good line-up, a good hitter`s park and the fact that Rios is turning that magic age of 27 in a few weeks, makes him my No. 3 choice.

Round 4, Pick 44: Travis Hafner, DH, CLE
Don`t judge Hafner on his sub-par 2007 season. The question is: Will this year be more like his 2006 campaign when he smacked 42 home runs and drove in 117 runs, or closer to last season`s stat line? I would bank on more than 30 home runs, with a possibility of 40. I`m not going to chalk up a .300 average at this time, but I certainly expect huge RBI numbers.

Round 5, Pick 53: Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX
A number of factors led to my selection of Kinsler. First and foremost, I needed some more speed. I liked where my power numbers were heading with Holliday, Rios and Hafner, so I wanted to focus on steals without sacrificing power -- you can never have enough power. I have a proclivity for 20-20 hitters. Can you blame me? ... My second reason was that the time to draft a second baseman was now, especially since this is a very thin position after the top five or six rounds. ... The third reason was that a 25-year-old middle infielder that puts up a healthy mix of power and speed is a perfect dynasty selection.

Round 6, Pick 68: Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
This was an admittedly questionable pick. I know I am reaching a round or two here, but Hawpe`s power is too good to pass up. With Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki hitting in front of him, the RBI number can be huge as well. His average of about .280 won`t hurt me, and if he can knock 30 homers again, this was a worthwhile selection at six. In addition, having three very strong starting outfielders six rounds deep is rarely a bad thing when starting five.

Round 7, Pick 77: Carlos Guillen, 1B/SS, DET
I am a big fan of flexability. There is only one thing better than players with multiple position eligibility: good players with multiple position eligibility! I drafted Guillen as my first baseman, but the shortstop/middle infield option is huge. He is getting up there in age, but the Tigers lineup is ferocious, to say the very least. The runs and RBI number alone could prove his worth in spades. Decent steal potential, solid average, that massively potent lineup and his position eligibility make Guillen a solid, yet safe choice in the seventh.

Round 8, Pick, 92: Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, CHI (AL)
I love this pick. A new team and a new ballpark is just what Swisher needs to reach the level many expect him to be at. Over 30 homeruns, 100 runs and 100 RBI will certainly silence critics, and more than certainly make owners very pleased with his value. His average is nothing to celebrate, but the rewards greatly outweigh the risk.

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