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Diamonds on the Crust
by Geoffrey Stein on February 18 2008
In the research stages of the fantasy baseball preseason, most drafters start their sleeper mining in the cold, deep roster trenches of the perennial losers -- such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates -- with the hopes that others will overlook a diamond buried amongst rocks, mud and animal droppings.
This season, however, digging deep isn`t required, as many diamonds are scattered across the crust -- Earth`s top layer. On planet fantasy baseball, the crust is the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox.
On the 25-man roster with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell and Clay Buchholz -- who all rank in the top-160 of Mock Draft Central`s Average Draft Position (ADP) -- is a threesome of sleepers with the potential to give owners the greatest gift of all: outperforming the spot they were drafted in.
That threesome, Julio Lugo, J.D. Drew and Jon Lester, all sit outside the top-225 players selected.
Entering 2007, drafters were counting on big things from Lugo, an offseason free agent addition. His ability to hit for average, the potential to steal 30-plus bases and hitting in front of Ramirez and Ortiz had the shortstop as the 73rd player drafted with an ADP of 75.65.
Things didn`t turnout the way drafters envisioned, though, as Lugo struggled, hitting .237 with eight home runs and 71 runs scored. The only bright spot: he did steal 33 bases.
The less-than-stellar season cost Lugo nearly 175 picks on his ADP, as his 2008 number currently sits at 251.23.
The story is much the same for Drew, who joined the Red Sox in the winter of 2007 after playing in a career-high 146 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers the season prior, hitting .283 with 20 home runs and 100 RBI. Counting on that production, drafters made him the 120th player selected with an ADP of 124.72.
Drew failed to meet expectations, hitting .270 with 11 home runs and 64 RBI.
Like Lugo, Drew`s 2008 ADP has plummeted. The frustrating outfielder is the 243rd player selected in drafts.
While neither Lugo or Drew will carry a team to a fantasy championship or give owners a warm, fuzzy feeling about having them on their roster, it`s hard to argue against the duo`s potential to outperform ADP.
Both players have had past success and been valuable, contributing members to winning fantasy teams. It`s fair to wonder if the pressure of playing in baseball-crazy Boston as the new, big-money free agent additions caused at least some of their struggles last season. The pressure will certainly be off in year two with lower expectations, a championship in the bag and the eyes -- and most likely wrath -- of Red Sox Nation elsewhere.
At 24 years of age, Lester fits the definition of sleeper more than his offensive teammates. He`s young, talented and for the most part, unproven.
After an impressive postseason in which he won the clinching game of the World Series and allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched, Lester has received little fantasy love this preseason. His ADP sits at 275.39, 62nd amongst starting pitchers and 245th overall.
Lester currently projects as the No. 4 or 5 pitcher in the Red Sox` rotation, a spot that should at the very least get him double-digit wins, evidenced by Tim Wakefield`s 2007 season in which the veteran knuckleballer rang up 17 victories -- good enough for eighth best in the American League -- despite a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Besides wins, Lester will also be a decent contributor in the ERA and strikeout categories. His three-category potential makes him worth a gamble; more so than many pitchers drafted ahead of him.
This season, however, digging deep isn`t required, as many diamonds are scattered across the crust -- Earth`s top layer. On planet fantasy baseball, the crust is the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox.
On the 25-man roster with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell and Clay Buchholz -- who all rank in the top-160 of Mock Draft Central`s Average Draft Position (ADP) -- is a threesome of sleepers with the potential to give owners the greatest gift of all: outperforming the spot they were drafted in.
That threesome, Julio Lugo, J.D. Drew and Jon Lester, all sit outside the top-225 players selected.
Entering 2007, drafters were counting on big things from Lugo, an offseason free agent addition. His ability to hit for average, the potential to steal 30-plus bases and hitting in front of Ramirez and Ortiz had the shortstop as the 73rd player drafted with an ADP of 75.65.
Things didn`t turnout the way drafters envisioned, though, as Lugo struggled, hitting .237 with eight home runs and 71 runs scored. The only bright spot: he did steal 33 bases.
The less-than-stellar season cost Lugo nearly 175 picks on his ADP, as his 2008 number currently sits at 251.23.
The story is much the same for Drew, who joined the Red Sox in the winter of 2007 after playing in a career-high 146 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers the season prior, hitting .283 with 20 home runs and 100 RBI. Counting on that production, drafters made him the 120th player selected with an ADP of 124.72.
Drew failed to meet expectations, hitting .270 with 11 home runs and 64 RBI.
Like Lugo, Drew`s 2008 ADP has plummeted. The frustrating outfielder is the 243rd player selected in drafts.
While neither Lugo or Drew will carry a team to a fantasy championship or give owners a warm, fuzzy feeling about having them on their roster, it`s hard to argue against the duo`s potential to outperform ADP.
Both players have had past success and been valuable, contributing members to winning fantasy teams. It`s fair to wonder if the pressure of playing in baseball-crazy Boston as the new, big-money free agent additions caused at least some of their struggles last season. The pressure will certainly be off in year two with lower expectations, a championship in the bag and the eyes -- and most likely wrath -- of Red Sox Nation elsewhere.
At 24 years of age, Lester fits the definition of sleeper more than his offensive teammates. He`s young, talented and for the most part, unproven.
After an impressive postseason in which he won the clinching game of the World Series and allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched, Lester has received little fantasy love this preseason. His ADP sits at 275.39, 62nd amongst starting pitchers and 245th overall.
Lester currently projects as the No. 4 or 5 pitcher in the Red Sox` rotation, a spot that should at the very least get him double-digit wins, evidenced by Tim Wakefield`s 2007 season in which the veteran knuckleballer rang up 17 victories -- good enough for eighth best in the American League -- despite a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Besides wins, Lester will also be a decent contributor in the ERA and strikeout categories. His three-category potential makes him worth a gamble; more so than many pitchers drafted ahead of him.
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