Line of Questioning - National League East

We continue our series of articles designed to address some of the major questions facing certain teams and how it affects fantasy owners. The offseason raised new questions about the upcoming season, and we`ll pick apart the results to delve deeper into the top burning questions that remain and offer our ideas of how it will play out for fantasy owners. The series will be broken into six divisional columns and will narrow it down to the ten biggest questions that fantasy junkies are still looking for answers on. We continue the series with a look at the National League East.

1) What side of Brad Lidge will the Phillies get this season?
Throughout the industry the efforts of fantasy experts have finally found results. I`m referring to the point we`ve been trying to drill home to readers -- closers have the most volatile role in baseball. Over the past three seasons, there has been an average of just over 12 new save sources to emerge each season, including 11 in 2007. Lidge was on the unfortunate end of the revolving closer door while with the Astros last season, blowing his first three save opportunities before giving way to Dan Wheeler before eventually picking up his first save on July 17. That`s right, over halfway into the season before he closed out his first save. So you have to question the Phillies decision to bring Lidge to their bandbox of a ballpark in a trade this offseason, right? His fly ball rate spiked last season after a couple years of being held in check, yet his K/9IP and K:BB ratio remained solid at 11.8 and 2.9 respectively. He`s not going to become averse to blowing saves, but what closer truly is? The Indians` Joe Borowski led the American League in blown saves last season, but along the way he also managed to lead the AL in saves. Lidge certainly had a rough stretch last season, and if he can`t rediscover his ground ball tendencies of 2005 and 2006, he`s sure to have another rough stretch in Philly this season. The Phils can`t afford to plug Brett Myers back into the closer role and Tom Gordon isn`t any more of a sure thing than Lidge; that`s why I believe fantasy owners should still get plenty of saves from him. On top of that, his struggles last season could still be fresh enough in the mind of some owners to drive his price to a bargain level.

2) Can Carlos Ruiz become a top-10 catcher in fantasy leagues?
A handful of people had Ruiz tabbed as a sleeper heading into 2007, but he had to wrestle the starting job away from Rod Barajas before putting up a paltry .259 average and six homers in 374 at-bats. This season should be different, at least from the perspective that he should be heading into the season with more confidence knowing he`s been named the undisputed starting catcher. The Phillies like the effect he has on their pitching staff, so they`ll likely stomach his offensive struggles, but fantasy owners obviously can`t make the same concession. Reasons that I am optimistic for him emerging as a top-10 fantasy catcher include the fact he hits in a very good lineup and he hit 16 long balls back in 2006 while at Triple-A. It`s also worth noting that his fly-ball rate is improving and he hit a fair number of doubles last season -- his 29 two-baggers were good for sixth among major league catchers -- which if that trend continues, suggests a power breakout is in his future. There is obviously still some uncertainty when it comes to forecasting a breakthrough this season, but it`s worth noting that the tools are there, he just has to apply them.

3) How will the new Nationals Park affect hitters and pitchers?
The Nationals wave goodbye to RFK Stadium and start the 2008 season in the more hitter friendly confines of brand spanking new Nationals Ballpark. RFK ranked last in the league in terms of home runs allowed, a trend that should change given the dimensions of the new stadium illustrated in the table below.

Drafts	Left	Left-Center	Center	Right-Center	Right
RFK Stadium	335 ft.	380 ft.	410 ft.	380 ft.	335 ft.
Nationals Park	336 ft.	377 ft.	403 ft.	370 ft.	335 ft.

The dimensions at Nationals obviously do not appear to be a major departure from RFK, but that`s before you realize the walls at the new park are eight and a half feet high other than in right-center field where they stand 14 feet tall. That is a significant enough departure from the 12-foot walls (eight feet in left field) in the majority of RFK. On top of the walls generally being closer and three and a half feet shorter, the foul territory is reduced noticeably, with many sections of the stands being 17 feet closer to the action. That means more foul balls, which means more pitches, which means a greater chance that a hitter connects on one of those additional offerings and inflicts greater damage in the process. Many experts are claiming that outfielder Austin Kearns stands to gain the most from the move since he`s a gap hitter, but there isn`t a ballpark with dimensions that can erase the fact he strikes out excessively. The guy I`m more intrigued by -- despite the fact he`s also a free swinger -- is Wily Mo Pena who is going undrafted in some drafts and is poised for a breakout after hitting .319 with four homers and 15 RBI in 94 September at-bats. You`re a fool if you expect his season average to come anywhere close to that, but he could be a solid power source. If Pena or Kearns don`t put up a less putrid effort at the plate, it may open the door for Elijah Dukes, who despite a troubled past has significant long-term potential and is just 23 years old. Unless you lack the capacity for logical reasoning, you could probably conclude that this isn`t quite as beneficial to Shawn Hill and the Nats` pitching staff.

4) How worried should we be about Carlos Beltran`s knees?
We certainly can`t complain about a season in which Beltran hit 33 homers, stole 23 bases and drove in 112 runs, but recent reports about his recovery from offseason surgery to remove dead scar tissue from his patella tendon in both knees is disconcerting. "I don`t feel 100 percent, but I hope to be by the start of the season," Beltran told the Westchester Journal-News. "I couldn`t play anymore like that. I didn`t feel pain as much as I did weakness." Despite taking some swings in Puerto Rico this winter, he has yet to run full speed and remains hopeful that it won`t affect this season like it did the last. It`s worth noting that when he has been plagued by injury in past seasons, the results have been much more gruesome than they were last year. Case in point a brutal April in 2004 due to a strained oblique and a quadriceps injury that caused him to turn in a pedestrian 2005 season. It makes sense for fantasy owners to pay particularly close attention to his progress throughout spring training, but it seems as though he should recover nicely from a relatively minor surgical procedure such as cleaning out scar tissue. He`s been drafted as late as the 25th overall pick and if he slides to the third-round in your draft, he`s clearly a value you should invest in despite the risk.

5) Is Cameron Maybin ready to play in the majors?
Few 20-year-old outfielders offer as much long-term potential as Maybin and it`s tough for fantasy owners, particularly those in keeper leagues, not to get consumed by the hype. The blockbuster offseason deal that sent him to the Marlins certainly puts him on a fast track to a starting job at the major league level (perhaps as early as Opening Day), but we need to remind you that he only had 20 at-bats above Single-A ball prior to being promoted to the big leagues last season. His questionable contact rate and plate discipline is the main thing holding him back from becoming a major league star and the Marlins will have to be very careful that they don`t waste away his confidence at the major league level if he struggles early in the season. If you`re asking me to answer this question honestly, my answer would be no. I think Maybin will play the majority of the 2008 season with the Marlins, and while he should steal a fair number of bases, I think the rest of his numbers will be quite average. It doesn`t mean I don`t think he`ll be a perennial All-Star eventually, I just don`t have much confidence in that run starting this season, which limits his value almost exclusively to keeper league formats.

6) Is Chuck James really out of the woods when it comes to his shoulder injury?
After winning eight games and keeping his ERA below 4.00 prior to the All-Star break last year, James` ERA spiked and he struggled noticeably down the stretch. It wasn`t until after the season when he was diagnosed with a slight tear in his rotator cuff that we had a reason to explain at least a part of his late season fade. The injury didn`t require surgery, so James instead spent the winter working out at a rehab facility three days a week. After throwing a few weeks ago, he told MLB.com that, "[The shoulder] felt probably the best that it`s felt in the past 10 years. It feels really good. If it stays right where it`s at now, I think I`ll be better than fine." That all sounds great, but there are two things that I am not: a doctor nor an optimist. While many pitchers have minor tears like this that go undiagnosed, it still seems like structural damage to me and is reason to question his ability to make it through the season unscathed. Then you consider the wear and tear that comes with the whip like motion of throwing a baseball and logic seems to suggest to me that fantasy owners should take a very cautious approach with James this season. Making him anything more than a fourth starter in mixed leagues seems like a precarious approach to me.

7) Has Carlos Delgado become as average as 2007 would suggest?
As I panned through the fantasy magazines in a recent visit to my local bookstore, there are plenty of fantasy experts assuming that 2007 was Delgado`s first of many mediocre efforts to come. That`s a pretty strong conclusion considering his season was riddled with knee and hip injuries and culminated with him fracturing his hand in the last game of the regular season. While he`s 36 years old and clearly past his prime, it seems foolish to assume he won`t be capable of topping last season`s numbers -- the lowest batting average, home run and RBI total in any season in which he had over 130 at-bats. One reason why I believe it`s too early to push Delgado out of the realm of relevancy is his improved numbers in the second half of last season. His batting average was over 75 points higher and he hit more homers and drove in more runs in over 30 fewer at-bats. Delgado confirmed earlier this week that the fractured hand isn`t an issue, telling the Associated Press, "The hand is 100 percent. I`ve been hitting since the first week of January." While there are probably 15 first baseman I would take the chance on before selecting him, Delgado`s career is certainly not Delgone-o.

8) Should we care what Braves outfielder Matt Diaz can do with over 400 at-bats?
Diaz has hit .333 in 655 at-bats with the Braves over the past two seasons, prompting the question what could he do with a full plate of at-bats in a single season? While he posted a .900 OPS in 191 at-bats after the All-Star break, it`s particularly troubling that he`s only walked 27 times in those 655 plate appearances, proving he`s not being disciplined enough at the plate. He will fly too far under the radar of some fantasy owners this spring, but unless he shows more patience at the plate, it`s difficult to imagine him maintaining a batting average north of .300.

9) Can we trust Brett Myers now that he`s back in the rotation?
How often do you have your Opening Day starter finish the season as the closer? If not for a rough 15.1 innings to start the season, Myers` numbers would`ve been much more impressive, but with Lidge in the fold to take over the closer duties, he`ll have to figure out how to be more effective in a starting role. Considering there have been so many pitchers who have jumped from starter to closer and back in the past decade, we quickly forget what an adjustment that can be. That said, there are a couple reasons to believe Myers can make the adjustment back to starting and be more effective than he was prior to closing out games. His K/9IP, K:BB ratio, and fly ball rate all improved last season and those are positive signs. You`re probably thinking, well he did that while in the closer role and while you`re right, those are still necessary baseline skills that translate to being an effective pitcher, regardless of exact role. The key for him now is to polish his ability to mix up his pitches and set up hitters and considering the rest of his game, the run support he should get from a solid Phillies lineup, and the fact he`s still just 27 years old is enough reason to believe he can be productive in a starting role. The best thing about it is that he shouldn`t carry a huge price tag in your draft or auction should you choose to invest.

10) Is Jeremy Hermida destined to become a star?
This time each year fantasy owners obsess about the next big prospect and dream about the gaudy numbers they are sure to put up. Such was the case for fantasy owners when they drooled over Hermida`s potential heading into the 2006 season. Then a lingering hip injury and strained tendon in his ankle took a dinosaur size bite out of that season and the once potential rookie of the year faded from the consideration for most fantasy owners. The ability of prospects to satisfy our need for instant gratification has birthed a new group of players we experts should be discussing, the scorned former elite. Fantasy owners jump ship on a player a season too early and then signs of the skill set they`ve possessed all along resurfaces in a big way, much like Hermida and his .296 average, 18 dingers and 63 RBI in 429 at-bats last season. The hype machine has certainly heated up again, with Hermida being pegged as a popular sleeper at nearly every reputable fantasy sports site, and while it`s unfortunate that his price is on the rise, it`s justified. After all, he hit .340 with 10 homers, 37 runs and 36 RBI in 256 at-bats after the All-Star break and made significant strides with his numbers against lefties. The bottom line with Hermida is if his health cooperates, the sky is the limit.