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Line of Questioning - American League Central
by Chris Bracke on February 27 2008
We continue our series of articles designed to address some of the major questions facing certain teams and how it affects fantasy owners. The offseason raised new questions about the upcoming season, and we`ll pick apart the results to delve deeper into the top burning questions that remain and offer our ideas of how it will play out for fantasy owners. The series will be broken into six divisional columns and will narrow it down to the ten biggest questions that fantasy junkies are still looking for answers on. We continue the series with a look at the American League Central.
1) Can John Danks and/or Gavin Floyd be productive members of the White Sox rotation?
After an offseason in which the White Sox traded pitchers Jon Garland and top prospect Gio Gonzalez, I can only imagine that general manager Ken Williams believes in the ability of John Danks and/or Gavin Floyd. They are penciled into the fourth and fifth rotation spots as we head into spring training games and yet much is still up in the air regarding how much fantasy owners can depend on them. Before he was traded to Chicago, Danks ascended through the Rangers minor league system rapidly, as seen by the fact he was just 21 years old when he first made it to Triple-A back in 2006. While he`s polished enough to enjoy some minor league success, he hasn`t improved his command (BB/K ratio) enough to be an above average major league starter. His skill set is still intriguing, and he did strike out 7.06 batters per nine innings, but his fantasy value this season is probably reduced to keeper leagues only. As for Floyd, he`s quite a bit removed from being named the Phillies top prospect by Baseball America back in 2003, but after three straight seasons of a sub-2.0 command, he made progress in 2007 with a 2.4 mark. He still allows too many fly balls, particularly in the homer-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he`s just 25 years old so there is hope he can become a productive fourth or fifth starter. All things considered, there is reason to believe that further struggle will come before promising progress with both pitchers, not the least of which is the unfortunate ballpark they call home.
2) Is a change of scenery what Carlos Quentin needed?
If you read last week`s Line of Questioning column, you`ll remember I discussed Marlins` outfielder Jeremy Hermida and the result his injuries have had in taking him from elite prospect to the realm of the forgotten. That label applies to Carlos Quentin as well, who reported to camp early after receiving medical clearance following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder. He`s expected to be 100 percent for the start of spring games, and he`ll need to be as he competes for at-bats with Jerry Owens (Nick Swisher and Jermaine Dye would seem to have spots locked up in center and right field respectively). A sliding contact rate is certainly disconcerting, but he`s still the same polished slugger with great plate discipline and the ability to drive the ball to all fields that earned him Baseball America`s top prospect spot for the Diamondbacks in 2005. He`s definitely dealt with his fair share of injuries since being drafted out of Stanford in 2003, but given how consistently productive his numbers were throughout his minor league career, it seems premature to write him off.
3) Can Joe Borowski hang onto the closer role in Cleveland?
If you`re looking for a tale of two extremes, consider Joe Borowski`s efforts in 2007. He led the American League in both saves and blown saves with 45 and eight respectively and posted a putrid 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Besides those roller coaster results, the Indians have a plethora of better options to fill the closer role in a Japanese import with closer experience in Masahide Kobayashi, promising second-year fireballer Rafael Perez and arguably the best middle reliever in baseball, Rafael Betancourt. There aren`t many closers capable of fending off such an impressive troika of bullpen arms, particularly one who sports a less than optimal skill set. Case in point, a 2.4 BB:K ratio, 7.4 K/9IP and 3.4 BB/9IP in 181.3 innings over the last three seasons. The Tribe managed to survive with him closing things out last year, but they`d be foolish to assume that risk for another season. If and when they wise up, fantasy owners better hope they invested in Betancourt and have an understanding of the other promising young arms in the Cleveland pen.
4) When will Adam Miller be a mainstay in the Tribe rotation?
I know I speak for many fantasy owners when I say that it`s frustrating when health -- or lack thereof -- prevents an obvious talent from emerging as a star. Such is the case with Athletics` pitcher Rich Harden, Padres` hurler Mark Prior and the promising Adam Miller. Elbow and hand injuries limited Miller to just 71.3 innings last year and he`s topped 100 innings in just one of his four professional seasons. Now just when we`d like to be optimistic that his ailments are behind him, Miller has been dealing with a blister on his right middle finger that has him listed as day-to-day and figures to be enough of an issue to guarantee he starts the season in the minors as opposed to Cleveland`s fifth starter. If he can shake the injuries, he has the potential to be dominating due to a fastball that can hit triple digits, a slider that breaks late and leaves hitters baffled, and command of all of the above. The fact of the matter is: The Indians have little reason to rush Miller with a rotation full of effective arms. On top of that, Miller hasn`t posted consistent command rates, which is a significant step towards sustaining success at the major league level. As a result, I expect fantasy owners looking for a significant contribution from Miller will be waiting until at least 2009 before they get it.
5) Is Aaron Laffey overlooked in the Indians rotation?
Do you remember where 2007 breakout Fausto Carmona was ranked at this point last season? After looking back I can safely tell you that there were few if any sources that had him among the top 50 starting pitchers in mixed leagues. Laffey lacks the ability to rack up the number of strikeouts that Carmona can, but the Indians won seven of the nine games he started last year, so it`s safe to say the fifth spot in the rotation is probably his to lose. If you`re still asking, "Why should fantasy owners care?," consider his impeccable 3.3 command and the fact he`s an extreme groundball pitcher -- something Carmona can attest is key to success in Progressive Field. When you get to the point in your draft that it`s hard to see the names on your list under all the crossed-out players, Laffey seems like a low risk, medium reward control artist worth taking a gamble on.
6) How much can we depend upon a Royals starting pitcher?
Over the last four seasons, the Royals have limped to a 244-404 record, so I`d hardly be surprised if most fantasy owners continue to overlook them. That said, there are some very intriguing young arms to keep an eye on over a nice rack of ribs at K.C.`s own Arthur Bryant`s. A pair of hurlers comes to mind in Luke Hochevar and Zack Greinke. Hochevar flashed some of his future potential by posting a solid 2.13 ERA in a 12.2-inning big league stint after the All-Star break. It`s tough to justify his promotion however, considering he really wasn`t that overpowering in the minors -- giving up 24 long balls in 152 innings. He`ll likely have his fair share of struggles this season, but he`s worth monitoring if for no other reason than he`s an extreme groundball pitcher. Greinke has provided quite a story, working his way back from clinical depression to pitch very effectively down the stretch. While he only had a 2-2 record to show for it, he put up a 2.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and struck out 24 batters in 27 September innings. His command and K/9IP continue to improve, and if his fly ball rate follows suit and he gets a smidge more run support from an improving young Royals offense, a 15-win season is not out of the question.
7) Which Twins pitcher(s) are worthwhile investments in 2007?
I`m in the minority that believes the Twins won`t suffer as much as people think sans Johan Santana this coming season. If that thought becomes reality, it will be because at least one starting pitcher emerged and was productive. Of course they`ll get Francisco Liriano back from Tommy John surgery, but no matter how good he was prior to the operation, he`s still a question mark since almost all pitchers who come back from this procedure are just average in their first year back and get much of their strength back in their second year post-op. It shouldn`t surprise fantasy owners if the Twins take a very cautious approach with their ace in 2008.
That leaves us with guys like Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to fill the final four rotation spots. Of those five, I`m most intrigued by Baker. Reasons I`m investing in him include the fact he maintained his 6.5 K/9IP last season while making significant progress with his command up from 2.6 to 3.9 in 2007 (combined major and minor league innings). His fly ball rate is still too high, making him prone to giving up the long ball, but he`s made more than enough progress to justify being filler for the back of your rotation.
8) Could Jason Kubel be the most productive DH in the AL Central?
It seems as though some people forgot about Kubel after he shredded his knee during Arizona Fall League play back in 2005. His .364 and .325 averages in August and September respectively should`ve earned his way back onto your radar, but in case they didn`t, consider his improved batting eye (up from .35 to .52), contact rate (up from 80 percent to 81 percent) and spike in the number of fly balls he hit (up from 31 to 35). All those signs suggest he could be in line for a career year in terms of power output. While that probably doesn`t mean he surpasses some of the elite designated hitter talent in the AL Central (Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield and even Royals` youngster Billy Butler) in home runs, he could easily hit for as good or better average and drive in 80 runs in the process. If the other owners in your league have forgotten about Kubel, gladly remind them when you add him to your roster on draft day.
9) Can recent acquisition Carlos Gomez take the Twins center field job and run with it?
While we don`t need to dwell on it, the Twins basically took the last available offer for Santana. The "prize" of that deal, at least from the perspective of paying more immediate dividends, is outfielder Carlos Gomez, who seems to be the favorite for the starting center field job as we start spring games his week. When Moises Alou went down with his annual injury last year, Gomez was called up by the Mets. While he did steal 12 bases, he hit a paltry .232 and struck out 27 times in 125 at-bats, leaving some to question whether or not he`s ready for the big leagues. There is no question Gomez possesses five-tool talent, highlighted by blazing speed that should allow him to steal 35-40 bases each season with ease. The question is when he`ll turn the corner regarding a balance between aggressiveness and plate discipline. The Twins aren`t in a position to limit him, but fantasy owners shouldn`t assume that serves as the prelude to big numbers. He`s a solid investment in keeper leagues, but owners in the redraft variety should resist the temptation to invest more than one of their last picks in his potential.
10) Can we really believe in a Dontrelle Willis renaissance?
Not everyone who reads my columns is aware that I started throwing up the warning flags when it comes to Willis after he tossed 459.2 innings between 2005 and 2006. Low and behold, he posted career worsts in most relevant stats including: K:BB ratio, BB/9IP, HR/9IP, opponents batting average, opponents OPS ... the list goes on. Sure he is just 26, but that is precisely why it`s so troublesome that he`s accumulated so many innings with what could be a significant number of seasons still ahead of him. Some fantasy experts might argue that run support was the issue, but he got an average of 6.27 runs per start from the Marlins last year and it would be quite a surprise if he gets less than that from the stout Tigers offense. If you don`t have enough reasons to avoid him, consider he moves to the American League which is tougher to pitch in if for no other reason than you don`t get to baffle the opposing pitcher once out of every nine at-bats. I agree that the excitement of being in a pennant race could help him and sure, he did win 22 games back in 2005, but I once won 22 straight games on Tecmo Baseball and another time I ate 22 Atomic Fireballs at once, so that`s precisely how much weight I put on that. I do subscribe to the adage that once a player displays a skill, he owns it (popularized by Baseball HQ and trumpeted by ESPN`s Matthew Berry), but I have about as much confidence in Willis exhibiting it as I do Gary Busey displaying tact.
1) Can John Danks and/or Gavin Floyd be productive members of the White Sox rotation?
After an offseason in which the White Sox traded pitchers Jon Garland and top prospect Gio Gonzalez, I can only imagine that general manager Ken Williams believes in the ability of John Danks and/or Gavin Floyd. They are penciled into the fourth and fifth rotation spots as we head into spring training games and yet much is still up in the air regarding how much fantasy owners can depend on them. Before he was traded to Chicago, Danks ascended through the Rangers minor league system rapidly, as seen by the fact he was just 21 years old when he first made it to Triple-A back in 2006. While he`s polished enough to enjoy some minor league success, he hasn`t improved his command (BB/K ratio) enough to be an above average major league starter. His skill set is still intriguing, and he did strike out 7.06 batters per nine innings, but his fantasy value this season is probably reduced to keeper leagues only. As for Floyd, he`s quite a bit removed from being named the Phillies top prospect by Baseball America back in 2003, but after three straight seasons of a sub-2.0 command, he made progress in 2007 with a 2.4 mark. He still allows too many fly balls, particularly in the homer-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he`s just 25 years old so there is hope he can become a productive fourth or fifth starter. All things considered, there is reason to believe that further struggle will come before promising progress with both pitchers, not the least of which is the unfortunate ballpark they call home.
2) Is a change of scenery what Carlos Quentin needed?
If you read last week`s Line of Questioning column, you`ll remember I discussed Marlins` outfielder Jeremy Hermida and the result his injuries have had in taking him from elite prospect to the realm of the forgotten. That label applies to Carlos Quentin as well, who reported to camp early after receiving medical clearance following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder. He`s expected to be 100 percent for the start of spring games, and he`ll need to be as he competes for at-bats with Jerry Owens (Nick Swisher and Jermaine Dye would seem to have spots locked up in center and right field respectively). A sliding contact rate is certainly disconcerting, but he`s still the same polished slugger with great plate discipline and the ability to drive the ball to all fields that earned him Baseball America`s top prospect spot for the Diamondbacks in 2005. He`s definitely dealt with his fair share of injuries since being drafted out of Stanford in 2003, but given how consistently productive his numbers were throughout his minor league career, it seems premature to write him off.
3) Can Joe Borowski hang onto the closer role in Cleveland?
If you`re looking for a tale of two extremes, consider Joe Borowski`s efforts in 2007. He led the American League in both saves and blown saves with 45 and eight respectively and posted a putrid 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Besides those roller coaster results, the Indians have a plethora of better options to fill the closer role in a Japanese import with closer experience in Masahide Kobayashi, promising second-year fireballer Rafael Perez and arguably the best middle reliever in baseball, Rafael Betancourt. There aren`t many closers capable of fending off such an impressive troika of bullpen arms, particularly one who sports a less than optimal skill set. Case in point, a 2.4 BB:K ratio, 7.4 K/9IP and 3.4 BB/9IP in 181.3 innings over the last three seasons. The Tribe managed to survive with him closing things out last year, but they`d be foolish to assume that risk for another season. If and when they wise up, fantasy owners better hope they invested in Betancourt and have an understanding of the other promising young arms in the Cleveland pen.
4) When will Adam Miller be a mainstay in the Tribe rotation?
I know I speak for many fantasy owners when I say that it`s frustrating when health -- or lack thereof -- prevents an obvious talent from emerging as a star. Such is the case with Athletics` pitcher Rich Harden, Padres` hurler Mark Prior and the promising Adam Miller. Elbow and hand injuries limited Miller to just 71.3 innings last year and he`s topped 100 innings in just one of his four professional seasons. Now just when we`d like to be optimistic that his ailments are behind him, Miller has been dealing with a blister on his right middle finger that has him listed as day-to-day and figures to be enough of an issue to guarantee he starts the season in the minors as opposed to Cleveland`s fifth starter. If he can shake the injuries, he has the potential to be dominating due to a fastball that can hit triple digits, a slider that breaks late and leaves hitters baffled, and command of all of the above. The fact of the matter is: The Indians have little reason to rush Miller with a rotation full of effective arms. On top of that, Miller hasn`t posted consistent command rates, which is a significant step towards sustaining success at the major league level. As a result, I expect fantasy owners looking for a significant contribution from Miller will be waiting until at least 2009 before they get it.
5) Is Aaron Laffey overlooked in the Indians rotation?
Do you remember where 2007 breakout Fausto Carmona was ranked at this point last season? After looking back I can safely tell you that there were few if any sources that had him among the top 50 starting pitchers in mixed leagues. Laffey lacks the ability to rack up the number of strikeouts that Carmona can, but the Indians won seven of the nine games he started last year, so it`s safe to say the fifth spot in the rotation is probably his to lose. If you`re still asking, "Why should fantasy owners care?," consider his impeccable 3.3 command and the fact he`s an extreme groundball pitcher -- something Carmona can attest is key to success in Progressive Field. When you get to the point in your draft that it`s hard to see the names on your list under all the crossed-out players, Laffey seems like a low risk, medium reward control artist worth taking a gamble on.
6) How much can we depend upon a Royals starting pitcher?
Over the last four seasons, the Royals have limped to a 244-404 record, so I`d hardly be surprised if most fantasy owners continue to overlook them. That said, there are some very intriguing young arms to keep an eye on over a nice rack of ribs at K.C.`s own Arthur Bryant`s. A pair of hurlers comes to mind in Luke Hochevar and Zack Greinke. Hochevar flashed some of his future potential by posting a solid 2.13 ERA in a 12.2-inning big league stint after the All-Star break. It`s tough to justify his promotion however, considering he really wasn`t that overpowering in the minors -- giving up 24 long balls in 152 innings. He`ll likely have his fair share of struggles this season, but he`s worth monitoring if for no other reason than he`s an extreme groundball pitcher. Greinke has provided quite a story, working his way back from clinical depression to pitch very effectively down the stretch. While he only had a 2-2 record to show for it, he put up a 2.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and struck out 24 batters in 27 September innings. His command and K/9IP continue to improve, and if his fly ball rate follows suit and he gets a smidge more run support from an improving young Royals offense, a 15-win season is not out of the question.
7) Which Twins pitcher(s) are worthwhile investments in 2007?
I`m in the minority that believes the Twins won`t suffer as much as people think sans Johan Santana this coming season. If that thought becomes reality, it will be because at least one starting pitcher emerged and was productive. Of course they`ll get Francisco Liriano back from Tommy John surgery, but no matter how good he was prior to the operation, he`s still a question mark since almost all pitchers who come back from this procedure are just average in their first year back and get much of their strength back in their second year post-op. It shouldn`t surprise fantasy owners if the Twins take a very cautious approach with their ace in 2008.
That leaves us with guys like Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to fill the final four rotation spots. Of those five, I`m most intrigued by Baker. Reasons I`m investing in him include the fact he maintained his 6.5 K/9IP last season while making significant progress with his command up from 2.6 to 3.9 in 2007 (combined major and minor league innings). His fly ball rate is still too high, making him prone to giving up the long ball, but he`s made more than enough progress to justify being filler for the back of your rotation.
8) Could Jason Kubel be the most productive DH in the AL Central?
It seems as though some people forgot about Kubel after he shredded his knee during Arizona Fall League play back in 2005. His .364 and .325 averages in August and September respectively should`ve earned his way back onto your radar, but in case they didn`t, consider his improved batting eye (up from .35 to .52), contact rate (up from 80 percent to 81 percent) and spike in the number of fly balls he hit (up from 31 to 35). All those signs suggest he could be in line for a career year in terms of power output. While that probably doesn`t mean he surpasses some of the elite designated hitter talent in the AL Central (Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield and even Royals` youngster Billy Butler) in home runs, he could easily hit for as good or better average and drive in 80 runs in the process. If the other owners in your league have forgotten about Kubel, gladly remind them when you add him to your roster on draft day.
9) Can recent acquisition Carlos Gomez take the Twins center field job and run with it?
While we don`t need to dwell on it, the Twins basically took the last available offer for Santana. The "prize" of that deal, at least from the perspective of paying more immediate dividends, is outfielder Carlos Gomez, who seems to be the favorite for the starting center field job as we start spring games his week. When Moises Alou went down with his annual injury last year, Gomez was called up by the Mets. While he did steal 12 bases, he hit a paltry .232 and struck out 27 times in 125 at-bats, leaving some to question whether or not he`s ready for the big leagues. There is no question Gomez possesses five-tool talent, highlighted by blazing speed that should allow him to steal 35-40 bases each season with ease. The question is when he`ll turn the corner regarding a balance between aggressiveness and plate discipline. The Twins aren`t in a position to limit him, but fantasy owners shouldn`t assume that serves as the prelude to big numbers. He`s a solid investment in keeper leagues, but owners in the redraft variety should resist the temptation to invest more than one of their last picks in his potential.
10) Can we really believe in a Dontrelle Willis renaissance?
Not everyone who reads my columns is aware that I started throwing up the warning flags when it comes to Willis after he tossed 459.2 innings between 2005 and 2006. Low and behold, he posted career worsts in most relevant stats including: K:BB ratio, BB/9IP, HR/9IP, opponents batting average, opponents OPS ... the list goes on. Sure he is just 26, but that is precisely why it`s so troublesome that he`s accumulated so many innings with what could be a significant number of seasons still ahead of him. Some fantasy experts might argue that run support was the issue, but he got an average of 6.27 runs per start from the Marlins last year and it would be quite a surprise if he gets less than that from the stout Tigers offense. If you don`t have enough reasons to avoid him, consider he moves to the American League which is tougher to pitch in if for no other reason than you don`t get to baffle the opposing pitcher once out of every nine at-bats. I agree that the excitement of being in a pennant race could help him and sure, he did win 22 games back in 2005, but I once won 22 straight games on Tecmo Baseball and another time I ate 22 Atomic Fireballs at once, so that`s precisely how much weight I put on that. I do subscribe to the adage that once a player displays a skill, he owns it (popularized by Baseball HQ and trumpeted by ESPN`s Matthew Berry), but I have about as much confidence in Willis exhibiting it as I do Gary Busey displaying tact.
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