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Line of Questioning -- National League Central
by Chris Bracke on March 05 2008
Sponsored by: Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
We continue our series of articles designed to address some of the major questions facing certain teams and how they affect fantasy owners. The offseason raised new questions about the upcoming season, and we`ll pick apart the results to delve deeper into the top burning questions that remain and offer our ideas of how it will play out for fantasy owners. The series will be broken into six divisional columns and will narrow it down to the ten biggest questions that fantasy junkies are still looking for answers on. We continue the series with a look at the National League Central.
1) When is the right time to draft Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome?
There are high expectations for Fukudome this season, but those simple accolades are too vague for fantasy owners trying to decide if the Japanese import is a better pick than outfielders like Aaron Rowand and Josh Hamilton. To determine whether or not to spend the pick, you need a working knowledge of the type of player Fukudome is. Most scouts compare him to Bobby Abreu or J.D. Drew; those comparisons seem fair because he can get on base frequently like Abreu, and has dealt with injuries recently like Drew. The fact of the matter is fantasy baseball owners are spoiled by Ichiro and seem to hold onto the hope that the latest player to arrive from Japan can come close to matching that production. That hope keeps us chasing each new arrival and while Fukudome won`t match Ichiro hit for hit, he has the tools to be the second most productive import in the last decade. He possesses good speed and solid plate discipline, making a line of .290, 15 homers, 75 runs and 15 steals a reasonable expectation. In my opinion, that leaves him on the board right around the time you hear names like Jeremy Hermida and Michael Cuddyer muttered.
2) When we close the books on 2008, which Cub hurler will have the most saves: Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry, or Carlos Marmol?
The Cubs have penciled in Ryan Dumpster (no, I intentionally spelled it that way) into the back of their rotation, which effectively opens up the closer role for Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood or Carlos Marmol, all qualified candidates albeit with widely ranging risk and potential. Howry has the most experience of the three closing out games, but the fact right-handers hit .283 against him last year and that he`s becoming more and more of an extreme fly ball pitcher over the last three years suggests if he`s in the role to start the season, he`ll have a hard time keeping it. The risk with Wood is obvious in that there are corpses on the better side of health than he has been over the last few seasons. In addition to that, he`s shown us fair little reason to be optimistic so far this spring. That leaves us with Marmol, who despite a notable fly ball tendency of his own, posted 10.9 K/9IP and a 2.8 BB/K ratio in 110 combined major and minor league innings last season. The point many scouts note is the fact Marmol allowed just three home runs in 2007 and while it`s foolish to suggest that will become a trend, I believe he`s the best long-term candidate for the Cubs closer job. If he`s unable to claim the closer job out of spring camp, he`ll fill in admirably once Howry and/or Wood fall flat early in the season. I believe so strongly in him that he`s my pick to finish the season as the Cubs saves leader.
3) True or False: Alfonso Soriano isn`t a first-round talent.
I have to admit that I was concerned about the Fonz even when we were simply looking at the residual effects of last season`s quadriceps injury, but now that he has a broken finger the reasons for caution are beginning to mount. His finger was much more swollen than anticipated a day after the injury on Monday, and while it`s still not typically considered a long-term concern, the team believes it will be at least a week before he even picks up a bat. He downplayed the injury, telling Sportsticker, "I`ll be back. I thought it wasn`t a big deal -- it`s happened to me before." That may be the case, but I`ve seen too many players with hand injuries that deal with lingering effects far longer than you`d typically expect. His current ADP is 13.00, which puts him just on the outside of the first-round and I would argue that at this point I`d rather take a shot with Braun, Carl Crawford and possibly Grady Sizemore -- all of whom are being drafted after Soriano. So I guess the answer to the question is true, the Fonz isn`t a first-round talent.
4) How concerned should we be about Albert Pujols` elbow?
Pujols` shot off Mets` reliever Duaner Sanchez in the Cardinals second Grapefruit League game was probably enough to alleviate some fantasy owners` concerns about his troublesome right elbow. Don`t count me among them. There is no first baseman I`d rather have than Pujols, but ONLY if he`s 100 percent healthy. That remains in serious doubt after recent reports acknowledged the possibility of manager Tony LaRussa using extra caution with his superstar slugger. "He`ll probably have less at-bats in spring when camp ends than in previous years," LaRussa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He also mentioned that he`ll consider setting aside days off for Pujols during the season, like a Sunday before an off day to get the first baseman back-to-back breathers. "It`s something you would consider," La Russa added. This would present obvious lineup problems if fantasy owners are forced to take an abbreviated season`s worth of numbers from Prince Albert. I think fantasy owners have a VERY real reason to be concerned regarding Pujols, which makes it a dilemma over how far is too far for him to fall in drafts or at what point in the bidding process does he become a bargain. His current ADP is 9.93 and while that doesn`t seem ridiculously out of whack, I have a tough time finding more than about 14 players I`d rather take over him. That probably sets his bargain basement price at something in the $28-$30 range in leagues that use a standard $260 cap.
5) What`s the ETA for Colby Rasmus in St. Louis?
When the Cardinals dealt veteran outfielder Jim Edmonds to the Padres in December, I was among the giddy. Not because Edmonds would seemingly approach the game with renewed vigor (starting with his soul-renewing offseason training with the Los Angeles SWAT team), but because of the hole in center field his departure seemingly opens up. While that spot will likely be filled by Rick Ankiel and the starting left field job will go to Chris Duncan, you can`t tell me you believe a right field platoon of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and Brian Barton are going to keep Colby Rasmus from earning significant playing time in St. Louis this season. A promotion to Double-A Springfield last season was just what Rasmus needed to secure his spot among the elite prospects, as he clubbed a league-leading 29 bombs while scoring 93 runs and swiping 18 bags in 472 at-bats. His power will likely be his greatest asset, but it won`t come at the expense of an average that fantasy owners can`t easily stomach. The lack of formidable options for the Redbirds along with a reasonable start to spring training seems to suggest a Ryan Braun-like May promotion (with more modest numbers) for Rasmus and while that is clearly appealing for keeper league owners like myself, a lack of at-bats above Double-A could put a ceiling on expectations in 2008. Nevertheless, in keeper leagues you should have the green light to invest, invest, invest.
6) What are reasonable expectations from Yovani Gallardo following surgery on a torn meniscus?
About the only thing more frustrating than trading for Gallardo in my keeper league days before his latest knee injury is those self checkout aisles at Wal-Mart that ask you whether or not you want to bag every item after you scan each and every one of them. No, I`d like to restock all the items -- OF COURSE I WANT TO BAG THE ITEM! You can`t continue scanning until you click the no button, which not only makes you feel that much stupider, but also makes the process longer than if you had the human cashier who really doesn`t want to be there check you out. Anyway, while numerous people believe in Gallardo`s ability, there are few people other than me and maybe Mom Gallardo who believe in his ability to become one of the top three or four pitchers in baseball. It seems as though this injury is little more than a detour from that goal. He was throwing just eight days after the Feb. 19 surgery and he reports nothing but progress since. "It feels good," Gallardo told MLB.com. "No problems. No pain. It felt a little awkward at the beginning of throwing once again, but as I went it got a lot better. It`s feeling good at this point." The Brewers plan on having Gallardo play catch several times before they entertain the idea of having him pitch off a mound. Given the timetable for recovery from the procedure and the progress he`s shown thus far, the team estimates he will get only three appearances before the start of the regular season, keeping open the possibility of a DL stint (albeit brief) before he makes a regular season start. It still seems probable that he still makes 30 starts and while he probably won`t be back to full strength before May, he`s still very capable of winning 15 games, posting an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.25.
7) After an unprecedented rookie campaign, can Ryan Braun stake his place among the fantasy elite?
If you peruse through a dozen magazines or websites this spring you`ll find that the ranking of the Brewers` reigning Rookie of the Year varies. Braun battered minor and major league pitchers alike, setting a rookie record for slugging percentage with a .634 mark and taking fantasy baseball by storm. Despite his clubbing 34 long balls and driving in 97 runs in just 451 at-bats, he has his fair share of doubters this season that believe he`s due for a large helping of sophomore slump with a side of fluke fries. While I may buy that if we`re simply discussing his always questionable defensive ability, I have a hard time believing he`ll simply forget how to hit. The only questionable month he turned in last year was his first (May). After that, he hit .382 in June, .345 in July, .287 in August, and .308 in September. So when the league was seeing him for the second time, it`s clear they still hadn`t caught up to him. His peripheral numbers suggest that his average may slide slightly, but his power is absolutely off the charts, with no signs of it regressing. The bottom line is if there are owners in your league who believe Braun isn`t deserving of your first- or second-round pick, don`t hesitate to scoop him up. You won`t be disappointed.
8) True or False: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in fantasy baseball?
Fidel Castro ruled Cuba for 50 years and there are days in which it feels like the rule atop the second base rankings for the Phillies Chase Utley has been nearly as long. So it seems foolish to suggest that anyone other than him would finish the deal atop the rankings, doesn`t it? Well consider the best challenger he`s had in a long time in the Reds` Brandon Phillips. Both Utley and Phillips play their home games in favorable ballparks; that alone is enough reason to expect reasonable numbers out of each of them. While there is no reason to believe Utley won`t put up another season of solid numbers, I tend to believe his numbers have leveled off. Then you have Phillips, who may have another breakout in him if for no other reason than he turns the magical age of 27 in June. On top of that, his contact and fly ball rate remain positive which should keep his power numbers stable and even without the bombs, he`s still one of the fastest second basemen in the game which suggests his stolen base totals should stay strong as well. The biggest question has always been his ability to hit for average and as he continues to hit for more power the likelihood for improvement in the average department becomes less likely. As a result, Utley will probably top Phillips in average and RBI, but don`t be surprised if the Reds` fan favorite is as good or better in the other three popular 5x5 rotisserie stats. That should make him nearly Utley`s equal in the second base rankings, but probably just shy of overtaking him at the top.
9) Could Paul Maholm finish the season as the best starting pitcher in Pittsburgh?
The Pirates have had their fair share of elite pitching prospects over the last decade, but very few have actually shown steps of justifying that label over the past few years. Maholm is the latest of the solid crop and while he`s merely a soft tossing southpaw in the eyes of many fantasy owners, his ability to induce groundballs with ease is enough reason to believe he can be successful. If he can cut down on the number of homers he permits, his ERA and WHIP may go down while his win total heads north. Even with an impressive skill set, he`ll be hard pressed to top ace Ian Snell, who made strides of his own last season, giving up fewer BB/9IP and improving his K:BB rate while improving his ERA. He won`t top Snell as the team`s best starting pitcher, but considering he`s going undrafted in 30-round mock drafts, he`s clearly being overlooked.
10) Is Michael Bourn going from must own to overhyped outfielder?
Earlier this offseason I was trumpeting Bourn as an outfielder every fantasy owner should covet this coming season. As I continue to examine his skill set in more detail, the speedy hometown hero loses a bit of his luster. His 82 percent contact rate is above average, but his batting eye is very average and it appears after further consideration that we could be looking at a Juan Pierre type of player. That`s certainly not a bad thing, as Pierre has averaged 55 steals per season over the last seven years, but it`s been four years since he`s hit over .300 or scored at least 100 runs. I need to reel things back in here before we get too far off on a tangent, because it`s Bourn, not Pierre who is the focus here. The reality of the situation is it`s too early to assume Bourn will get on base frequently enough to be more than a one dimensional player. His speed literally blurs the situation and unless he proves he can get on base more than the sabermetric numbers suggest, he`ll be little more than a one-category force. So he may not be overhyped yet, but all bets our off by the time your draft rolls around.
1) When is the right time to draft Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome?
There are high expectations for Fukudome this season, but those simple accolades are too vague for fantasy owners trying to decide if the Japanese import is a better pick than outfielders like Aaron Rowand and Josh Hamilton. To determine whether or not to spend the pick, you need a working knowledge of the type of player Fukudome is. Most scouts compare him to Bobby Abreu or J.D. Drew; those comparisons seem fair because he can get on base frequently like Abreu, and has dealt with injuries recently like Drew. The fact of the matter is fantasy baseball owners are spoiled by Ichiro and seem to hold onto the hope that the latest player to arrive from Japan can come close to matching that production. That hope keeps us chasing each new arrival and while Fukudome won`t match Ichiro hit for hit, he has the tools to be the second most productive import in the last decade. He possesses good speed and solid plate discipline, making a line of .290, 15 homers, 75 runs and 15 steals a reasonable expectation. In my opinion, that leaves him on the board right around the time you hear names like Jeremy Hermida and Michael Cuddyer muttered.
2) When we close the books on 2008, which Cub hurler will have the most saves: Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry, or Carlos Marmol?
The Cubs have penciled in Ryan Dumpster (no, I intentionally spelled it that way) into the back of their rotation, which effectively opens up the closer role for Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood or Carlos Marmol, all qualified candidates albeit with widely ranging risk and potential. Howry has the most experience of the three closing out games, but the fact right-handers hit .283 against him last year and that he`s becoming more and more of an extreme fly ball pitcher over the last three years suggests if he`s in the role to start the season, he`ll have a hard time keeping it. The risk with Wood is obvious in that there are corpses on the better side of health than he has been over the last few seasons. In addition to that, he`s shown us fair little reason to be optimistic so far this spring. That leaves us with Marmol, who despite a notable fly ball tendency of his own, posted 10.9 K/9IP and a 2.8 BB/K ratio in 110 combined major and minor league innings last season. The point many scouts note is the fact Marmol allowed just three home runs in 2007 and while it`s foolish to suggest that will become a trend, I believe he`s the best long-term candidate for the Cubs closer job. If he`s unable to claim the closer job out of spring camp, he`ll fill in admirably once Howry and/or Wood fall flat early in the season. I believe so strongly in him that he`s my pick to finish the season as the Cubs saves leader.
3) True or False: Alfonso Soriano isn`t a first-round talent.
I have to admit that I was concerned about the Fonz even when we were simply looking at the residual effects of last season`s quadriceps injury, but now that he has a broken finger the reasons for caution are beginning to mount. His finger was much more swollen than anticipated a day after the injury on Monday, and while it`s still not typically considered a long-term concern, the team believes it will be at least a week before he even picks up a bat. He downplayed the injury, telling Sportsticker, "I`ll be back. I thought it wasn`t a big deal -- it`s happened to me before." That may be the case, but I`ve seen too many players with hand injuries that deal with lingering effects far longer than you`d typically expect. His current ADP is 13.00, which puts him just on the outside of the first-round and I would argue that at this point I`d rather take a shot with Braun, Carl Crawford and possibly Grady Sizemore -- all of whom are being drafted after Soriano. So I guess the answer to the question is true, the Fonz isn`t a first-round talent.
4) How concerned should we be about Albert Pujols` elbow?
Pujols` shot off Mets` reliever Duaner Sanchez in the Cardinals second Grapefruit League game was probably enough to alleviate some fantasy owners` concerns about his troublesome right elbow. Don`t count me among them. There is no first baseman I`d rather have than Pujols, but ONLY if he`s 100 percent healthy. That remains in serious doubt after recent reports acknowledged the possibility of manager Tony LaRussa using extra caution with his superstar slugger. "He`ll probably have less at-bats in spring when camp ends than in previous years," LaRussa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He also mentioned that he`ll consider setting aside days off for Pujols during the season, like a Sunday before an off day to get the first baseman back-to-back breathers. "It`s something you would consider," La Russa added. This would present obvious lineup problems if fantasy owners are forced to take an abbreviated season`s worth of numbers from Prince Albert. I think fantasy owners have a VERY real reason to be concerned regarding Pujols, which makes it a dilemma over how far is too far for him to fall in drafts or at what point in the bidding process does he become a bargain. His current ADP is 9.93 and while that doesn`t seem ridiculously out of whack, I have a tough time finding more than about 14 players I`d rather take over him. That probably sets his bargain basement price at something in the $28-$30 range in leagues that use a standard $260 cap.
5) What`s the ETA for Colby Rasmus in St. Louis?
When the Cardinals dealt veteran outfielder Jim Edmonds to the Padres in December, I was among the giddy. Not because Edmonds would seemingly approach the game with renewed vigor (starting with his soul-renewing offseason training with the Los Angeles SWAT team), but because of the hole in center field his departure seemingly opens up. While that spot will likely be filled by Rick Ankiel and the starting left field job will go to Chris Duncan, you can`t tell me you believe a right field platoon of Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and Brian Barton are going to keep Colby Rasmus from earning significant playing time in St. Louis this season. A promotion to Double-A Springfield last season was just what Rasmus needed to secure his spot among the elite prospects, as he clubbed a league-leading 29 bombs while scoring 93 runs and swiping 18 bags in 472 at-bats. His power will likely be his greatest asset, but it won`t come at the expense of an average that fantasy owners can`t easily stomach. The lack of formidable options for the Redbirds along with a reasonable start to spring training seems to suggest a Ryan Braun-like May promotion (with more modest numbers) for Rasmus and while that is clearly appealing for keeper league owners like myself, a lack of at-bats above Double-A could put a ceiling on expectations in 2008. Nevertheless, in keeper leagues you should have the green light to invest, invest, invest.
6) What are reasonable expectations from Yovani Gallardo following surgery on a torn meniscus?
About the only thing more frustrating than trading for Gallardo in my keeper league days before his latest knee injury is those self checkout aisles at Wal-Mart that ask you whether or not you want to bag every item after you scan each and every one of them. No, I`d like to restock all the items -- OF COURSE I WANT TO BAG THE ITEM! You can`t continue scanning until you click the no button, which not only makes you feel that much stupider, but also makes the process longer than if you had the human cashier who really doesn`t want to be there check you out. Anyway, while numerous people believe in Gallardo`s ability, there are few people other than me and maybe Mom Gallardo who believe in his ability to become one of the top three or four pitchers in baseball. It seems as though this injury is little more than a detour from that goal. He was throwing just eight days after the Feb. 19 surgery and he reports nothing but progress since. "It feels good," Gallardo told MLB.com. "No problems. No pain. It felt a little awkward at the beginning of throwing once again, but as I went it got a lot better. It`s feeling good at this point." The Brewers plan on having Gallardo play catch several times before they entertain the idea of having him pitch off a mound. Given the timetable for recovery from the procedure and the progress he`s shown thus far, the team estimates he will get only three appearances before the start of the regular season, keeping open the possibility of a DL stint (albeit brief) before he makes a regular season start. It still seems probable that he still makes 30 starts and while he probably won`t be back to full strength before May, he`s still very capable of winning 15 games, posting an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.25.
7) After an unprecedented rookie campaign, can Ryan Braun stake his place among the fantasy elite?
If you peruse through a dozen magazines or websites this spring you`ll find that the ranking of the Brewers` reigning Rookie of the Year varies. Braun battered minor and major league pitchers alike, setting a rookie record for slugging percentage with a .634 mark and taking fantasy baseball by storm. Despite his clubbing 34 long balls and driving in 97 runs in just 451 at-bats, he has his fair share of doubters this season that believe he`s due for a large helping of sophomore slump with a side of fluke fries. While I may buy that if we`re simply discussing his always questionable defensive ability, I have a hard time believing he`ll simply forget how to hit. The only questionable month he turned in last year was his first (May). After that, he hit .382 in June, .345 in July, .287 in August, and .308 in September. So when the league was seeing him for the second time, it`s clear they still hadn`t caught up to him. His peripheral numbers suggest that his average may slide slightly, but his power is absolutely off the charts, with no signs of it regressing. The bottom line is if there are owners in your league who believe Braun isn`t deserving of your first- or second-round pick, don`t hesitate to scoop him up. You won`t be disappointed.
8) True or False: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in fantasy baseball?
Fidel Castro ruled Cuba for 50 years and there are days in which it feels like the rule atop the second base rankings for the Phillies Chase Utley has been nearly as long. So it seems foolish to suggest that anyone other than him would finish the deal atop the rankings, doesn`t it? Well consider the best challenger he`s had in a long time in the Reds` Brandon Phillips. Both Utley and Phillips play their home games in favorable ballparks; that alone is enough reason to expect reasonable numbers out of each of them. While there is no reason to believe Utley won`t put up another season of solid numbers, I tend to believe his numbers have leveled off. Then you have Phillips, who may have another breakout in him if for no other reason than he turns the magical age of 27 in June. On top of that, his contact and fly ball rate remain positive which should keep his power numbers stable and even without the bombs, he`s still one of the fastest second basemen in the game which suggests his stolen base totals should stay strong as well. The biggest question has always been his ability to hit for average and as he continues to hit for more power the likelihood for improvement in the average department becomes less likely. As a result, Utley will probably top Phillips in average and RBI, but don`t be surprised if the Reds` fan favorite is as good or better in the other three popular 5x5 rotisserie stats. That should make him nearly Utley`s equal in the second base rankings, but probably just shy of overtaking him at the top.
9) Could Paul Maholm finish the season as the best starting pitcher in Pittsburgh?
The Pirates have had their fair share of elite pitching prospects over the last decade, but very few have actually shown steps of justifying that label over the past few years. Maholm is the latest of the solid crop and while he`s merely a soft tossing southpaw in the eyes of many fantasy owners, his ability to induce groundballs with ease is enough reason to believe he can be successful. If he can cut down on the number of homers he permits, his ERA and WHIP may go down while his win total heads north. Even with an impressive skill set, he`ll be hard pressed to top ace Ian Snell, who made strides of his own last season, giving up fewer BB/9IP and improving his K:BB rate while improving his ERA. He won`t top Snell as the team`s best starting pitcher, but considering he`s going undrafted in 30-round mock drafts, he`s clearly being overlooked.
10) Is Michael Bourn going from must own to overhyped outfielder?
Earlier this offseason I was trumpeting Bourn as an outfielder every fantasy owner should covet this coming season. As I continue to examine his skill set in more detail, the speedy hometown hero loses a bit of his luster. His 82 percent contact rate is above average, but his batting eye is very average and it appears after further consideration that we could be looking at a Juan Pierre type of player. That`s certainly not a bad thing, as Pierre has averaged 55 steals per season over the last seven years, but it`s been four years since he`s hit over .300 or scored at least 100 runs. I need to reel things back in here before we get too far off on a tangent, because it`s Bourn, not Pierre who is the focus here. The reality of the situation is it`s too early to assume Bourn will get on base frequently enough to be more than a one dimensional player. His speed literally blurs the situation and unless he proves he can get on base more than the sabermetric numbers suggest, he`ll be little more than a one-category force. So he may not be overhyped yet, but all bets our off by the time your draft rolls around.
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