Subscribe via RSS
Looking for the printable version link? Just print this page instead!
The Pessimistic View: American League Closers
by Geoffrey Stein on March 11 2008
Sponsored by: Rotowire
By now, one doesn`t need me to go over how volatile the closer position is in baseball.
After a rough 2007 that included an early-season injury to B.J. Ryan, a mid-season trade of Eric Gagne, and Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski leading their leagues in saves, many fantasy baseballers vowed to wait on saves this upcoming season.
That`s a good idea, because when I look at the crop of closers for the 2008 season, it`s hard for me to be anything but pessimistic. Whether it`s closer No. 1 or closer No. 30, there is a potential negative with every projected door-slammer.
Today, we`ll focus on the potential downfalls of the 14 American League closers.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles, George Sherrill: I`m not sure the lefty acquired in the Erik Bedard trade is a major league closer; meaning he`ll fit right in on the Orioles roster of players not talented enough for their current role. Sherrill did put up decent numbers last season, because he was able to get right-handed hitting batters out. However, if he reverts back to 2006 form -- where righties hit .297 against him -- Jamie Walker or Jim Hoey could be finishing games by June.
Boston Red Sox, Jon Papelbon: The stud closer managed to pitch 10 fewer innings in 2007, but the arm worries that caused the Red Sox to consider starting Papelbon last spring still loom in my mind. It`s a minor worry, but one that needs to be considered before using a third-round selection on a closer.
New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera: Entering last season, the worries with Rivera had to do with his dropoff in strikeouts. The good news: he had more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2007. The bad news: he had a career-high ERA (3.15) and his highest WHIP (1.12) since 1997. The 38-year-old is worth drafting, but don`t expect the dominant numbers of seasons past.
Tampa Bay Rays, Troy Percival: Excuse me if I`m not excited about a 38-year-old who retired prior to the 2006 season due to an arm injury, came back and now has two capable closers -- Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler -- behind him.
Toronto Blue Jays, Jeremy Accardo: I list Accardo as the Toronto closer for one reason: the Blue Jays haven`t been exactly honest about Ryan`s injury in the past. I don`t believe them when they say the lefty will be ready when the season starts. ... The negative on Accardo: he`ll eventually be bumped by Ryan. The negative on Ryan: he`s coming off Tommy John surgery and a year of inactivity.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Bobby Jenks: Despite striking out less than a hitter an inning, Jenks was pretty good last season; in stark contrast to 2006, when he wasn`t so good with a 4.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. One good year, one bad year: season No. 3 will decide whether the bulky right-hander is a dominating or middle-of-the-road closer. Right now, he`s being drafted as a dominant one.
Cleveland Indians, Joe Borowski: I`m not a big believer in guys with a 5.07 ERA and plenty of viable options -- Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi and Rafael Perez -- behind them. Plus, his throwing arm was ready to fall off four years ago with the Cubs; it`s bound to happen sooner or later.
Detroit Tigers, Todd Jones: If you need saves Jones is your man. He`s also your man if you need a high ERA and WHIP, no strikeouts and a reason to swear. The good news: Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are hurt.
Kansas City Royals, Joakim Soria: Like everyone else that has closed for the Royals since 1994, the problem with Soria is: he closes for the Royals. One has to wonder how many attempts he`ll receive.
Minnesota Twins, Joe Nathan: Yes, Nathan is pretty good. However, the Twins are rebuilding and have yet to come to a long-term contract agreement with him. With Pat Neshek waiting in the wings and the very realistic chance the Twins stink this season, the hard-throwing righty could be a prime trade target for contending teams this July. A move out of Minnesota is scary, as Nathan could wind up in Boston or New York where he`d most likely serve as a lowly setup man.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Francisco Rodriguez: Entering the final season of his contract, it`s fair to worry if the stress that comes along with the lack of a deal will affect Rodriguez on the field -- he seems like the fragile type.
Oakland Athletics, Houston Street: Gee, what`s not to like here? A pitcher who has a hard time staying healthy on a team well on its way to losing 90-plus games isn`t exactly my idea of a sure thing closer. Street`s Average Draft Position (ADP) is too high entering this season.
Seattle Mariners, J.J. Putz: Had some minor injury worries last spring, but that`s complaining about a single hair on the arm of the prom queen. He`s pretty good.
Texas Rangers, C.J. Wilson: Like Sherrill, the left-handed Wilson is much better against lefties than righties; he`s a specialist, not a closer. Look for right-handed Joaquin Benoit or veteran Eddie Guardado to be closing out games in Arlington.
After a rough 2007 that included an early-season injury to B.J. Ryan, a mid-season trade of Eric Gagne, and Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski leading their leagues in saves, many fantasy baseballers vowed to wait on saves this upcoming season.
That`s a good idea, because when I look at the crop of closers for the 2008 season, it`s hard for me to be anything but pessimistic. Whether it`s closer No. 1 or closer No. 30, there is a potential negative with every projected door-slammer.
Today, we`ll focus on the potential downfalls of the 14 American League closers.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles, George Sherrill: I`m not sure the lefty acquired in the Erik Bedard trade is a major league closer; meaning he`ll fit right in on the Orioles roster of players not talented enough for their current role. Sherrill did put up decent numbers last season, because he was able to get right-handed hitting batters out. However, if he reverts back to 2006 form -- where righties hit .297 against him -- Jamie Walker or Jim Hoey could be finishing games by June.
Boston Red Sox, Jon Papelbon: The stud closer managed to pitch 10 fewer innings in 2007, but the arm worries that caused the Red Sox to consider starting Papelbon last spring still loom in my mind. It`s a minor worry, but one that needs to be considered before using a third-round selection on a closer.
New York Yankees, Mariano Rivera: Entering last season, the worries with Rivera had to do with his dropoff in strikeouts. The good news: he had more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2007. The bad news: he had a career-high ERA (3.15) and his highest WHIP (1.12) since 1997. The 38-year-old is worth drafting, but don`t expect the dominant numbers of seasons past.
Tampa Bay Rays, Troy Percival: Excuse me if I`m not excited about a 38-year-old who retired prior to the 2006 season due to an arm injury, came back and now has two capable closers -- Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler -- behind him.
Toronto Blue Jays, Jeremy Accardo: I list Accardo as the Toronto closer for one reason: the Blue Jays haven`t been exactly honest about Ryan`s injury in the past. I don`t believe them when they say the lefty will be ready when the season starts. ... The negative on Accardo: he`ll eventually be bumped by Ryan. The negative on Ryan: he`s coming off Tommy John surgery and a year of inactivity.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Bobby Jenks: Despite striking out less than a hitter an inning, Jenks was pretty good last season; in stark contrast to 2006, when he wasn`t so good with a 4.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. One good year, one bad year: season No. 3 will decide whether the bulky right-hander is a dominating or middle-of-the-road closer. Right now, he`s being drafted as a dominant one.
Cleveland Indians, Joe Borowski: I`m not a big believer in guys with a 5.07 ERA and plenty of viable options -- Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi and Rafael Perez -- behind them. Plus, his throwing arm was ready to fall off four years ago with the Cubs; it`s bound to happen sooner or later.
Detroit Tigers, Todd Jones: If you need saves Jones is your man. He`s also your man if you need a high ERA and WHIP, no strikeouts and a reason to swear. The good news: Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are hurt.
Kansas City Royals, Joakim Soria: Like everyone else that has closed for the Royals since 1994, the problem with Soria is: he closes for the Royals. One has to wonder how many attempts he`ll receive.
Minnesota Twins, Joe Nathan: Yes, Nathan is pretty good. However, the Twins are rebuilding and have yet to come to a long-term contract agreement with him. With Pat Neshek waiting in the wings and the very realistic chance the Twins stink this season, the hard-throwing righty could be a prime trade target for contending teams this July. A move out of Minnesota is scary, as Nathan could wind up in Boston or New York where he`d most likely serve as a lowly setup man.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Francisco Rodriguez: Entering the final season of his contract, it`s fair to worry if the stress that comes along with the lack of a deal will affect Rodriguez on the field -- he seems like the fragile type.
Oakland Athletics, Houston Street: Gee, what`s not to like here? A pitcher who has a hard time staying healthy on a team well on its way to losing 90-plus games isn`t exactly my idea of a sure thing closer. Street`s Average Draft Position (ADP) is too high entering this season.
Seattle Mariners, J.J. Putz: Had some minor injury worries last spring, but that`s complaining about a single hair on the arm of the prom queen. He`s pretty good.
Texas Rangers, C.J. Wilson: Like Sherrill, the left-handed Wilson is much better against lefties than righties; he`s a specialist, not a closer. Look for right-handed Joaquin Benoit or veteran Eddie Guardado to be closing out games in Arlington.
« Previous Article Article List Next Article »