Line of Questioning - American League West

We continue our series of articles designed to address some of the major questions facing certain teams and how it affects fantasy owners. The offseason raised new questions about the upcoming season, and we`ll pick apart the results to delve deeper into the top burning questions that remain and offer our ideas of how it will play out for fantasy owners. The series will be broken into six divisional columns and will narrow it down to the ten biggest questions that fantasy junkies are still looking for answers on. We continue the series with a look at the American League West.

1) Is Hank Blalock finally healthy enough to rake?
It`s not terribly surprising that over the last two years Blalock turned in the two worst seasons of his major league career. That`s because he`s dealt with a lingering shoulder injury and a bizarre malady in which one of his ribs applied pressure on nerves and subsequently sent pain shooting throughout his arm. After surgery to address these issues he returned and hit like gangbusters, posting a .313 average with five dingers, 12 runs, 17 RBI and a stolen base in 64 September at-bats. So despite the fact I`m a pessimist in almost all of life`s endeavors, I strongly believe the glass if half full in respect to Blalock. I don`t believe the recent car accident in which he suffered a bit of whiplash is a long term concern. The Rangers lineup isn`t as potent as it once was, but it`s still solid enough that Blalock should have protection in guys like Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Milton Bradley and Marlon Byrd. I fully expect him to come close to meeting his career high of 32 homers.

2) Can catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia free himself of a time share behind the dish?
I`ve been aboard the Saltalamacchia bandwagon for a couple years now, but there`s still a fair amount of doubt that he`s going to win the starting catcher job. If you glance at the team`s depth chart over on MLB.com, it`s Gerald Laird who has his hands on the starting job at this point, mostly due to his edge over Salty in the defensive department. The difference is obvious when you compare the two player`s value in fantasy baseball. Clearly Laird`s career .246 average, 19 homers and 93 RBI in 880 at-bats leaves a bit to be desired, but despite Saltalamacchia`s potential, he has a ways to go when you consider his very average 77 percent contact rate ((AB-K)/AB). Salty is a premium investment in keeper league formats, but don`t expect the 25 home run seasons to start in 2008.

3) Did the Reds sell high on Josh Hamilton or did the Rangers buy low?
Prior to last season, major league success was as much a fit for Josh Hamilton as Cameo`s 1986 classic "Word Up" is for the latest Chevrolet ad campaign. Then he finally overcome drug addiction to become the feel good story of 2007, emerging as a star with the Reds, hitting .292 with 19 homers, 52 runs, 47 RBI and three steals in just 298 at-bats. Despite that success, he hit just .222 with one long ball against lefties, prompting some reports that he could be platooned against southpaws and in turn, putting his fantasy value in question. Manager Ron Washington has since told MLB.com that he expects Hamilton to be in the lineup on Opening Day against Mariners lefty Erik Bedard and there is reason to believe he`s an everyday player regardless of matchup. Perhaps Washington took another look at his team`s depth chart and realized that Donnie Murphy, Frank Catalanotto and Jason Botts don`t provide a huge challenge to Hamilton in terms of offensive upside. I`m in the camp that believes Hamilton finally has his career on track and is poised for a string of seasons with 30-homer, 100 RBI potential. That said, the experts who are writing about the positive move to a great hitting ballpark (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington) are forgetting one thing, he moved from Great American Ballpark -- a park that is actually even more favorable for left-handed hitters such as him. So while I don`t think the Reds sold high on Hamilton, I don`t think his ceiling is much higher than the 30-home run mark that seems to be his baseline.

4) Can promising outfield prospect Wladimir Balentien beat out veteran Brad Wilkerson for at-bats?
There are more than a few scouts around the league that strongly believe Balentien has greater offensive upside than Adam Jones, their former top outfield prospect they dealt to Baltimore for Bedard. Until last year it`s safe to say they probably didn`t hold that belief. That`s because Balentien`s biggest fault -- his propensity for striking out -- has shown vast improvement over the last three seasons going from 160 in 2005, to 145 in 2006, to 105 in 2007 (in over 520 plate appearances in each season). There is no question that his power is major league ready and after the progress he`s made, there`s at least a chance that it won`t come at the expense of his average. His effort at Triple-A last year (.291 average, 24 homers, 77 runs, 84 RBI and 15 steals in 544 plate appearances) is testament to the type of game-changing offensive threat he`s capable of becoming, but for now it looks like the Mariners will commit to Wilkerson to start in right field for the foreseeable future. Despite that fact, fantasy owners should remember that Wilkerson is hardly the picture of health, playing in 120 or more games just once in the last three seasons and it could take as little as one trip to the 15-day DL for Balentien to grab hold of the starting job and run with it.

5) How aggressive will the Athletics be with their prospects (Gio Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, Brett Anderson, etc.)?
As I tried to put into words how frustrating it is to be a fan of a small market major league team, I came up with what I viewed as a perfect visual -- at least for those who grew up during the 1980s. Consider being locked in a room with Orko from He-Man and the Masters of the Universe and Snarf from Thundercats. Not only will their high pitched voices cause you to beat your head into a bloody pulp, you won`t understand them either -- much like the confusion that sets in over some of the decisions your nearest small market club made this offseason. The fact of the matter is you really couldn`t build around Nick Swisher as the team`s primary offensive threat and the impressive pile of young talent that Billy Beane was able to accumulate through trading Swisher and ace Dan Haren is a testament to his abilities as a general manager. The jury is still out on whether either of the incoming Gonzalezes will stick with the team this spring. Fresh off of leading the minor leagues in strikeouts last season with 185, Gio hasn`t appeared overmatched this spring and while he remains on the outside looking in at a rotation spot, he`ll get the first call when one of Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, or Lenny DiNardo either succumb to an injury or struggle to pitch effectively. He`s clearly the most major league ready of all the prospects that came to Oakland this offseason and he should get a chance to show it early in the season. Meanwhile, Carlos (the other Gonzalez) has made his presence felt in camp this spring, highlighted by a 2-for-4, two RBI effort against the Giants in one of the A`s first spring exhibitions. Those two players figure to make a bigger impact this season than any of the group that came over in any of the offseason deals.

Neither Fautino De Los Santos nor Brett Anderson have pitched above Single-A, but that may be the only reason the A`s don`t push them to the majors late in 2008. De Los Santos posted a 32:7 K:BB ratio at High Class A after dominating Low A in his professional debut while Anderson is widely considered the most polished high school pitcher in a decade, with scouts citing his plus-plus command as the reason for such accolades. The Athletics have made an obvious commitment to rebuilding in a very competitive AL West division and that is more than enough reason to believe their top talent such as all the players we`ve mentioned above will be pushed to the majors as soon as they demonstrate they`re ready, regardless of their age. That makes each of the players in the talented quartet we discussed worthy of investment in keeper league formats this season, with De Los Santos being the most likely of the group to fall short of the bigs in 2008.

6) How many innings does Rich Harden throw?
I had to include this question simply because I was asked it by a reader over at my blog (see Mock Draft Central`s blog links) recently and it gets at the more important dilemma of whether or not we can trust Harden. As a keeper league owner who had Harden for a couple years, my giddy anticipation of the breakout season in which he contended for a Cy Young quickly faded to simply hoping he never again made one of my fantasy team`s roster on one of my teams no matter what the circumstance. His disastrous outing last Saturday in which he gave up seven hits, two walks and four earned runs while striking out three Cubs in as many innings led to him putting in some extra time with bullpen coach Ron Romanick to get to the bottom of a pitching mechanics issue that at least Harden himself was placing blame on for his rough outing against the Giants. "I found some things I need to work on, and I tried working on them," Harden told the San Jose Mercury News. "My command wasn`t there. That will come around ... its spring training. I`m there to work on stuff." It`s fair to assume he was tinkering with things during the rough start versus San Francisco, but it doesn`t alleviate concerns over his injury history. "With injuries, you start pitching away from pain and change your mechanics," he added. "We found something (recently), just something pretty big I used to do with my front side." So does this mean the coaching staff waved their magical wand and Harden will be back to pitching in dominating style so long as he gets home from the ball prior to midnight? Consider me among the skeptical. I remain cynical because his injuries (strained elbow ligament in 2006, shoulder issues in 2007) have all been arm-related. It`s not like Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, where the many of his injuries have been fluky. When it comes down to it, throwing 100-plus pitches in as many as 30 games in a season is a taxing and unnatural task for the human body to do. While there is plenty of variety in regards to certain pitchers ability to hold up under this kind of stress, I believe we have more than enough evidence to suggest it`s a task Harden isn`t up to on a regular basis.

7) Who closes games when Huston Street is inevitably dealt?
As we discussed earlier in this article, it`s clear the Athletics are embracing the idea of rebuilding. That leaves two particularly valuable players for Billy Beane to shop around the trade deadline, one of which is closer Huston Street. Relief pitching is arguably the most sought after commodity around the deadline as teams hope to make that final push towards a long postseason run and Street should be among the top relievers available come July. That would obviously leave a big hole at the back of the A`s bullpen -- one which Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Alan Embree, or Keith Foulke would likely be called upon to fill. Foulke leads the pack with 190 career saves and Embree checks in with 25, but neither Casilla nor Devine have more than five career saves. While it`s clear that the long-term solution is likely the groundballer Devine, it would seem likely that Embree, who closed out games last season while Street was hurt, would get the first crack at reprising his brief 2007 role. He and his high fly ball rate may just be good enough to get the job done on a team that`s expected to give the Rangers a run for the cellar in the NL West, but Devine`s extreme groundball ways and his improving K/9IP and K:BB ratio are enough reason for keeper league owners to invest in him in the long term.

8) What does the relocation west do for Angels pitcher Jon Garland?
We could`ve made a series of articles based simply on pitchers relocating to the AL West considering Bedard, Carlos Silva, Jason Jennings and Garland would all qualify. Instead, it seems obvious that Bedard is an absolute ace who only gets stronger in a more favorable pitchers` park and we`d rather avoid Silva and Jennings altogether. Some fantasy owners would probably lump Garland into that avoid category as well, but their haste to condemn could be detrimental. The obvious reason to not completely turn up your nose at Garland is that while he doesn`t benefit from quite the extreme pitchers park Bedard does, he moves from the American League`s most homer-friendly park in U.S. Cellular Field to a neutral park in Angel Stadium. This is important to note because much of Garland`s second half collapse in 2007 was due to the steady rise in his fly ball rate, with a high point coming late last season. His new manager, Mike Scioscia certainly recognizes his potential, telling MLB.com, "With a little support, he certainly has the ability to win 20 games." That may be an extreme viewpoint, but he did post a respectable 1.25 WHIP in the first half of last season before shoulder tightness had an effect on his ability to pitch consistently. If you combine that with the fact that he should be more effective in Angel Stadium even if the fly ball rate fails to improve and suddenly we are at least able to see the kind of potential Garland has with consistent offensive and defensive support. "Not only is he a strike thrower," Scioscia added, "but he throws good command strikes on tough counts. He shows the ability to make pitches in tough situations. He wants to win." On a winning team with that kind of attitude, it would behoove fantasy owners to consider drafting him as back end rotation filler with the potential for a bigger role.

9) Is this FINALLY the year for Howie Kendrick?
Kendrick`s breakout season has been pending for a couple years now and it`s slipped through his fingers in 2007 mostly because one of those fingers was broken. That combined with other injuries restricted him to just 88 games last year and his lack of patience that comes with the inability to enjoy that breakout has likely played a role in declining contact rate. The fact is that if you look around the industry, you will be hard pressed to find experts who have completely given up on Kendrick`s ability to emerge as one of the league`s best second basemen. Once he finally got healthy last season, he showed he was very capable of tearing the cover off the ball to the tune of a .357 average, 23 runs, 21 RBI and two steals in 143 at-bats after the All-Star break. He`s healthy this spring and on top of hitting quite well, he`s showing more aggressiveness on the bases, something that led to his manager Mike Scioscia telling MLB.com, "Howie certainly has the ability to steal between 20 and 30 bases a year." That would simply add to what should be a very, very good year for Mr. Kendrick.

10) Is Ervin Santana being overlooked by fantasy owners?
Over the last three seasons, only three Angels starting pitchers have won more games in a single season than the 16 Ervin Santana won back in 2006. Last year was a debacle equally as disappointing as his 2006 was promising. In 150 innings, Santana put up a nausea-inducing 7-14 record, 5.76 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and a very average 2.2 K:BB ratio. So why on Earth would I suggest Santana is being overlooked considering he`s sixth on the Angels pitching rotation depth chart over and going undrafted in some mocks? After seeing him post an ERA five runs greater on the road last season more than a fair share of fantasy owners have completely written him off simply because he probably wouldn`t start the season in the rotation if not for a Kelvim Escobar injury. The fact of the matter is he simply lost his confidence last season. His K:BB ratio, BB/9IP, and K/9IP actually improved in 182 combined major/minor league innings last year and he finished the season strong, holding hitters to a .218 average while posting a 2.96 ERA, 9.9 K/9IP and 1.28 WHIP in 27.1 September innings. Sure, he`s on the outside looking in at a permanent role in the Angels rotation, but injuries and Joe Saunders` inability to show us he can sustain his success, provides enough reason to believe Santana could stick in the rotation with a decent showing to start the season. If you are looking to spend a couple auction bucks or a late round pick on a pitcher with upside, you could do worse than Ervin Santana.