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The Pessimistic View: National League Closers
by Geoffrey Stein on March 13 2008
Sponsored by: Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
By now, one doesn`t need me to go over how volatile the closer position is in baseball.
After a rough 2007 that included an early-season injury to B.J. Ryan, a mid-season trade of Eric Gagne, and Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski leading their leagues in saves, many fantasy baseballers vowed to wait on saves this upcoming season.
That`s a good idea, because when I look at the crop of closers for the 2008 season, it`s hard for me to be anything but pessimistic. Whether it`s closer No. 1 or closer No. 30, there is a potential negative with every projected door-slammer.
Today, we`ll look at the potential downfall of the 14 projected National League closers.
NL East
Atlanta Braves, Rafael Soriano: The past injury problems still linger in a lot of minds with Soriano, who pitched a career-high 72 innings in 2007 after 60 in 2006. The other worry: though the 28-year-old has been successful at the big league level, he`s still relatively new to closing with 13 saves in 187 career games. It takes a certain mentality to close; unfortunately it won`t be clear if Soriano has it until fantasy drafts are completed.
Florida Marlins, Kevin Gregg: Like anyone over the age of 25 on the Marlins roster, one has to wonder if Gregg will be pitching in Miami come July. If he`s not closing in Florida, he`ll be setting up -- and not getting saves -- somewhere else. The Fish won`t be playing for a lot in 2008; trading Gregg for prospects and giving the job to a youngster -- such as Matt Lindstrom or Henry Owens -- makes a lot of sense.
New York Mets, Billy Wagner: At 36 years of age, Wagner isn`t exactly a spring chicken. He`s a good closer on a good team, but it`s fair to question how many 70-inning seasons he has left in him.
Philadelphia Phillies, Brad Lidge: Forget the knee that was surgically repaired three weeks ago, it all comes down to one thing with Lidge: Is he over Game 5 of the 2005 National League Championship Series?
Washington Nationals, Chad Cordero: Like Gregg, there`s a good chance that Cordero is setting up for a contender come July. Obviously, Washington general manager Jim Bowden isn`t against dealing his closer, as offseason reports linked Cordero to Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Kerry Wood: If one doesn`t know the potential negative on Wood, they probably shouldn`t be playing fantasy baseball.
Cincinnati Reds, Francisco Cordero: The bad news for Cordero: he doesn`t pitch in Milwaukee any more. Last season, the 32-year-old was outstanding at Miller Park, holding opponents to a .143 batting average in 41.1 innings pitched. In 22 innings on the road, however, Cordero had an ERA of 6.55 with an opponent`s batting average of .337. Maybe he just likes his own bed, but the numbers away from his old home stadium are worrisome.
Houston Astros, Jose Valverde: Let`s rewind back to year 2006, shall we.... Mel Gibson was arrested for drunk driving, Kevin Richardson left the Backstreet Boys and Valverde lost his closing job in Arizona. While Gibson and Richardson don`t show up on Mock Draft Central`s Average Draft Position (ADP) report, the new Houston closer does -- at 84th overall. That`s quite a gamble on a guy who lost his job less than two seasons ago.
Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Gagne: Four words: Boston Red Sox numbers.
Pittsburgh Pirates, Matt Capps: The great thing about the Pirates and Royals: they`re pretty much interchangeable. Stealing from my negative on Joakim Soria.... Like everyone else that has closed for the Pirates since 1992, the problem with Capps: he closes for the Pirates. One has to wonder how many attempts he`ll receive.
St. Louis Cardinals, Jason Isringhausen: Degenerative hip condition: check. Bad team: check. What could be bad here?
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon Lyon: He`s going to get hurt at some point and youngster Tony Pena is going to take the job and not give it back.
Colorado Rockies, Manny Corpas: Not a lot to pick at here. The only possible negative is Corpas` lack of experience as a closer; though he did rack up 19 saves last season.
Los Angeles Dodgers, Takashi Saito: Back to the trusty checklist.... Injury concerns: check. Old age: check (38 years old). Flame throwing youngster ready to take over: check. Saito is definitely one to be cautious with.
San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman: The final week of the 2007 season was nothing short of a disaster for Hoffman, who blew leads that cost the Padres a trip to the playoffs. At 40 years of age, there are questions as to just how much the veteran closer has left.
San Francisco Giants, Brian Wilson: In order for Wilson to record a save, the Giants are going to have to win a game. And conditions aren`t favorable for San Francisco victories.
After a rough 2007 that included an early-season injury to B.J. Ryan, a mid-season trade of Eric Gagne, and Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski leading their leagues in saves, many fantasy baseballers vowed to wait on saves this upcoming season.
That`s a good idea, because when I look at the crop of closers for the 2008 season, it`s hard for me to be anything but pessimistic. Whether it`s closer No. 1 or closer No. 30, there is a potential negative with every projected door-slammer.
Today, we`ll look at the potential downfall of the 14 projected National League closers.
NL East
Atlanta Braves, Rafael Soriano: The past injury problems still linger in a lot of minds with Soriano, who pitched a career-high 72 innings in 2007 after 60 in 2006. The other worry: though the 28-year-old has been successful at the big league level, he`s still relatively new to closing with 13 saves in 187 career games. It takes a certain mentality to close; unfortunately it won`t be clear if Soriano has it until fantasy drafts are completed.
Florida Marlins, Kevin Gregg: Like anyone over the age of 25 on the Marlins roster, one has to wonder if Gregg will be pitching in Miami come July. If he`s not closing in Florida, he`ll be setting up -- and not getting saves -- somewhere else. The Fish won`t be playing for a lot in 2008; trading Gregg for prospects and giving the job to a youngster -- such as Matt Lindstrom or Henry Owens -- makes a lot of sense.
New York Mets, Billy Wagner: At 36 years of age, Wagner isn`t exactly a spring chicken. He`s a good closer on a good team, but it`s fair to question how many 70-inning seasons he has left in him.
Philadelphia Phillies, Brad Lidge: Forget the knee that was surgically repaired three weeks ago, it all comes down to one thing with Lidge: Is he over Game 5 of the 2005 National League Championship Series?
Washington Nationals, Chad Cordero: Like Gregg, there`s a good chance that Cordero is setting up for a contender come July. Obviously, Washington general manager Jim Bowden isn`t against dealing his closer, as offseason reports linked Cordero to Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Kerry Wood: If one doesn`t know the potential negative on Wood, they probably shouldn`t be playing fantasy baseball.
Cincinnati Reds, Francisco Cordero: The bad news for Cordero: he doesn`t pitch in Milwaukee any more. Last season, the 32-year-old was outstanding at Miller Park, holding opponents to a .143 batting average in 41.1 innings pitched. In 22 innings on the road, however, Cordero had an ERA of 6.55 with an opponent`s batting average of .337. Maybe he just likes his own bed, but the numbers away from his old home stadium are worrisome.
Houston Astros, Jose Valverde: Let`s rewind back to year 2006, shall we.... Mel Gibson was arrested for drunk driving, Kevin Richardson left the Backstreet Boys and Valverde lost his closing job in Arizona. While Gibson and Richardson don`t show up on Mock Draft Central`s Average Draft Position (ADP) report, the new Houston closer does -- at 84th overall. That`s quite a gamble on a guy who lost his job less than two seasons ago.
Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Gagne: Four words: Boston Red Sox numbers.
Pittsburgh Pirates, Matt Capps: The great thing about the Pirates and Royals: they`re pretty much interchangeable. Stealing from my negative on Joakim Soria.... Like everyone else that has closed for the Pirates since 1992, the problem with Capps: he closes for the Pirates. One has to wonder how many attempts he`ll receive.
St. Louis Cardinals, Jason Isringhausen: Degenerative hip condition: check. Bad team: check. What could be bad here?
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon Lyon: He`s going to get hurt at some point and youngster Tony Pena is going to take the job and not give it back.
Colorado Rockies, Manny Corpas: Not a lot to pick at here. The only possible negative is Corpas` lack of experience as a closer; though he did rack up 19 saves last season.
Los Angeles Dodgers, Takashi Saito: Back to the trusty checklist.... Injury concerns: check. Old age: check (38 years old). Flame throwing youngster ready to take over: check. Saito is definitely one to be cautious with.
San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman: The final week of the 2007 season was nothing short of a disaster for Hoffman, who blew leads that cost the Padres a trip to the playoffs. At 40 years of age, there are questions as to just how much the veteran closer has left.
San Francisco Giants, Brian Wilson: In order for Wilson to record a save, the Giants are going to have to win a game. And conditions aren`t favorable for San Francisco victories.
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