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Line of Questioning - National League West
by Chris Bracke on March 19 2008
Sponsored by: Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
We continue our series of articles designed to address some of the major questions facing certain teams and how it affects fantasy owners. The offseason raised new questions about the upcoming season, and we`ll pick apart the results to delve deeper into the top burning questions that remain and offer our ideas of how it will play out for fantasy owners. The series will be broken into six divisional columns and will narrow it down to the ten biggest questions that fantasy junkies are still looking for answers on. We continue the series with a look at the National League West.
1) Who saves the most games in the Diamondbacks` pen?
I give credit to Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes for feeling no pressure to keep closer Jose Valverde around at all costs. The trade that sent the major league leader in saves to Houston brought in a handful of players, one of which is veteran reliever Chad Qualls, who figures to factor into a significant role in the bullpen. Shortly after the deal went down, manager Bob Melvin told reporters he believes in defined bullpen roles and that Brandon Lyon will fill that of closer, but I`m skeptical that poor decision will last. A quick glance at Lyon`s surface stats suggests he`s least effective when in the closer role. If you look at the two major leagues seasons in which he closed games (2003 with Boston and 2005 with Arizona) his ERA and WHIP were the highest they`ve been in any of his big league campaigns. While he`s not really a fly ball pitcher, his fly ball rate has been climbing over the last three seasons -- not a positive sign considering Chase Field ranked right behind Coors Field last season in terms of homers allowed. The challengers for the closing job would be Tony Pena and the aforementioned Qualls, with the former more likely to get the first crack at picking up the pieces when Lyon collapses. Pena`s numbers in the first half of 2007 were very strong, with just one save, but a .189 BAA, under 3.0 walks per nine innings and a respectable (albeit average) 5.8 K/9IP. The problem with him is that he wasn`t able to sustain that success in the second half, making it hard to expect he`ll be able to recapture that form this season. The guy I`m most intrigued by in their pen is Qualls and the only negative I can see with him is that it may take the D-backs too long to hand the closer job to him to make a difference for fantasy owners. Qualls is an extreme groundball pitcher who set career highs with 8.5 K/9IP and 3.1 K:BB ratio last season while with the Astros. His ground ball tendency plays well in Chase Field, making Qualls the clear-cut best choice to close games in the desert. Despite that logic, I have no confidence in Melvin figuring things out, that`s why I believe Pena will finish the season with the most saves in the D-backs pen.
2) Does the move to the desert help or hurt D-backs hurler Dan Haren?
The tendency for most analysts when they heard about the Haren trade was to tout the idea that pitchers moving from the AL to NL have a much easier transition if for no other reason than they get to face the opposing pitcher once every nine batters. The righty`s career is trending up in every direction except fly ball rate, which is troubling considering the fact I beat home repeatedly about Chase Field ranking near the top of the league in homers allowed. He clearly had a growth season in 2007 and while the significant workload has yet to have an effect on his numbers I have a hard time expecting him to top last year`s numbers.
3) Who emerges as the Rockies second baseman and should it matter to fantasy owners?
When Kaz Matsui left Colorado for Houston this offseason, it opened up a hole at second the size of a pair of Rocky Mountain oysters. That resulted in the Rockies reaching to pluck the washed up Marcus Giles from the free agent waters to battle Jeff Baker, Omar Quintanilla, Jayson Nix, Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes for the starting second base job. According to recent reports in the Rocky Mountain News, the battle is down to Baker and Nix, with Baker having a slight edge, but to put into perspective just how clear this battle is, the Denver Post reported on Sunday that Nix may actually have the edge for the starting job. Maybe the Daily Camera, Pueblo Chieftain, or Bailey Republican and Fairplay Flume would like to chime in on the subject? And yes, there is actually a newspaper called the Republican and Fairplay Flume. The reality of this situation is that the Rockies will probably platoon two or three players until a hot hand emerges and by, "hot" I mean slightly less lousy than the alternatives. Unless you are in a keeper league where a guy like Stewart may have some value, the best decision would be to avoid this situation altogether.
4) Why doesn`t Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis get more respect in fantasy circles?
I used to subscribe, heck, even lead the push to avoid Rockies pitchers. That was before the arrival of the humidor and its ability to tame the thin air in Coors Field. Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus and Mitchell Lichtman at insidethebook.com put together some great research that claims the humidor has reduced the average fly ball distance by 11 feet (that puts it at 329 feet which is just four feet above the league average for all outdoor parks) and cut the number of fly balls that find the seats by eight percent. Part of this should be credited to an improved Rockies pitching staff, but clearly most of the credit goes to the humidor. Perhaps it`s the humidor effect that stands as the reason most fantasy owners are unwilling to give credit to the ability of Francis. They look at his WHIP and/or ERA and run away like they`re facing the proposition of watching a marathon of Mariah Carey`s cinematic debut Glitter. It`s time they realize Francis is really quite a good pitcher. He`s improved his K/9IP, K:BB ratio and BB/9IP over each of the last three seasons, and his ERA has been largely the result of bad luck in the form of balls falling in for hits. He won 17 games last season and there are signs that he is capable of posting an ERA under 4.00; if those are numbers that the other owners in my league aren`t interested in, I`ll be happy to find space for him on my roster.
5) Is 25-25 a possibility this season for Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp?
The Dodgers organization has been quite effective at blocking their young talent by veterans, some of which were still productive, but many of which were past their prime. Kemp is one of the best young talents to pry his way into at-bats, putting up an impressive showing and making scouts and fantasy owners alike drool over his potential. He`s touted as a five-tool star in the making and while there is plenty of truth to that, he still lacks the ability to control the strike zone as seen by his 16:66 BB:K ratio in 292 at-bats last year. I think there is no disputing his skill set, but he is just 23 years old and it may be too much to ask of him to post a line of 25 homers, 25 steals and a .300 average in his first year of what should be a full plate of at-bats.
6) What are reasonable expectations for Hiroki Kuroda?
Over the last few seasons the accessibility of stats and information from the Japanese League has improved significantly. Nevertheless, it still seems like fantasy owners are largely making slightly educated guesses when it comes to predicting how a Kosuke Fukudome or in this case, Hiroki Kuroda, will fare in his first major league season. Reasons to feel good about Kuroda are the fact he`s in a pitcher friendly ballpark and he`s an extreme groundball pitcher with solid control of his pitches. The nature of his game won`t produce many strikeouts and his propensity for groundballs will depend greatly on the defense behind him, which does figure to be fairly good. He should be decent enough to serve as the Dodgers fourth or fifth starter and win 8-10 games while posting an ERA over 4.30 and WHIP over 1.30, which isn`t good enough for him to have a significant role on one of my fantasy rosters.
7) Is there a bounceback season in Andruw Jones` future?
What a mess Jones was in 2007. If you`re trying to build an argument against the theory of contract year players, an essay on Jones would certainly do the trick. Despite a nauseating .222 average last season, Jones still came close to driving in 100 runs, with a total of 94. He is 30 years old, but that isn`t enough reason to believe last year`s struggles are a trend. The pressure of cashing in on free agency was a factor in how aggressively he swung away at anything remotely close to the strike zone. When you consider he moved to a less favorable ballpark for hitters everything seems to appear glass half empty, but it`s worth noting that his contact rate recovered in the second half and his fly ball rate was up for the season. He`s probably never going to hit over 30 homers in a season again, but he should find himself in a solid Dodgers lineup and it wouldn`t be the least bit surprising to see him return to respectability.
8) How stable is Brian Wilson`s job as the Giants closer?
Given the fact many high profile (and lower profile like myself) experts in this industry have long trumpeted the "don`t spend big on closers" strategy, it really amazes me to hear owners in my leagues turning up their nose at closers on what are expected to be bad teams. That said, I heard multiple owners cringe at names like Matt Capps, Troy Percival, Todd Jones and Wilson in my first league auction this past weekend. While it`s obviously nice to invest in closers who are less likely to lose the job, it`s not always possible. That said, it`s not a reason to gauge risk in situations like the Giants bullpen. Joining Wilson in the pen are Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey and Steve Kline, all of whom have 20 or more saves in their career. If you look at the peripheral stats of those players, Wilson clearly has the most upside in the K/9IP department, but nearly all of them have a propensity for walking too many players. While a 5.2 BB/9IP in 58 combined major and minor league innings certainly causes me to pause when it comes to putting Wilson on my roster, I`ll take my chances since he`ll likely come cheap. That said, I think there is a deep sleeper candidate brewing in former top prospect Merkin Valdez, who is back on the radar after he`s clearly starting to regain the strength and command he had prior to missing the 2007 season following Tommy John surgery. I`m not saying he`s even remotely close to applying pressure to Wilson for the job, because he`s not, but there`s clearly enough volatility in the skill sets of the Giants notable bullpen arms and if Wilson doesn`t cut down on the number of free passes he dishes out, it will only be so long before he hands the keys to the closer role to someone else.
9) Is Giants infielder Eugenio Velez a viable option for fantasy owners?
Velez is one of the feel good stories of spring training, as he`s hit .340 and swiped nine bags while earning the praise of manager Bruce Bochy. We know that it`s just spring training and that doesn`t translate directly to regular season success, but it can point to opportunity, particularly when the alternative is average players such as Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia and Kevin Frandsen. "If we want a lineup with speed in there, he gives you another dimension," Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle. "This kid is fun to watch." Despite the fact Vizquel is hurt and second base looks like a Durham-Frandsen platoon, Velez should make the Giants roster and if he continues to perform well in the regular season, we could be looking at a sleeper source for steals. Obviously the Giants aren`t a real strong team so we need to temper our expectations somewhat, but there have been recent reports on MLB.com that acknowledge that the front office knows Velez seems to have an ability to make things happen that isn`t real prevalent on the rest of their roster. He`s certainly a viable option and given the bargain price he should command, fantasy owners in deep mixed leagues may want to consider him as an end-game flier.
10) Could Padres outfielder Chase Headley be a sleeper candidate for NL Rookie of the Year?
Much like Velez, Padres outfielder/third baseman Chase Headley has enjoyed a simmering spring to the tune of a .414 average with three doubles and three homers in 29 at-bats. Last season, Headley led the Texas League (Double-A) in average (.330), on base percentage (.437) and slugging percentage (.580) en route to MVP honors. Not unlike most high profile prospects, his defensive ability -- or lack thereof -- is what stands in his way of a major role with the big league club, but reports out of camp claim he`s been respectable playing left field -- the position he moved to since Kevin Kouzmanoff is firmly entrenched at third base. The National League has a pretty strong rookie class that includes talents like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and many, many more. That said, it`s rare for pitchers to win the award and Bruce doesn`t seem to have as strong of a chance to earn regular playing time to start the season as Headley. That obviously doesn`t mean Bruce can`t arrive to make an impact at mid-season (a la Ryan Braun), but Headley has a history of producing at the minor league level and despite lack of significant experience above Double-A, he appears major league ready. You`ll have to check your league`s eligibility requirement to see if you can put him at third base (where he played in the minors last year). If he earns your league`s approval, he`s certainly worth a flier after the top 14 or 15 third basemen are off the board.
1) Who saves the most games in the Diamondbacks` pen?
I give credit to Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes for feeling no pressure to keep closer Jose Valverde around at all costs. The trade that sent the major league leader in saves to Houston brought in a handful of players, one of which is veteran reliever Chad Qualls, who figures to factor into a significant role in the bullpen. Shortly after the deal went down, manager Bob Melvin told reporters he believes in defined bullpen roles and that Brandon Lyon will fill that of closer, but I`m skeptical that poor decision will last. A quick glance at Lyon`s surface stats suggests he`s least effective when in the closer role. If you look at the two major leagues seasons in which he closed games (2003 with Boston and 2005 with Arizona) his ERA and WHIP were the highest they`ve been in any of his big league campaigns. While he`s not really a fly ball pitcher, his fly ball rate has been climbing over the last three seasons -- not a positive sign considering Chase Field ranked right behind Coors Field last season in terms of homers allowed. The challengers for the closing job would be Tony Pena and the aforementioned Qualls, with the former more likely to get the first crack at picking up the pieces when Lyon collapses. Pena`s numbers in the first half of 2007 were very strong, with just one save, but a .189 BAA, under 3.0 walks per nine innings and a respectable (albeit average) 5.8 K/9IP. The problem with him is that he wasn`t able to sustain that success in the second half, making it hard to expect he`ll be able to recapture that form this season. The guy I`m most intrigued by in their pen is Qualls and the only negative I can see with him is that it may take the D-backs too long to hand the closer job to him to make a difference for fantasy owners. Qualls is an extreme groundball pitcher who set career highs with 8.5 K/9IP and 3.1 K:BB ratio last season while with the Astros. His ground ball tendency plays well in Chase Field, making Qualls the clear-cut best choice to close games in the desert. Despite that logic, I have no confidence in Melvin figuring things out, that`s why I believe Pena will finish the season with the most saves in the D-backs pen.
2) Does the move to the desert help or hurt D-backs hurler Dan Haren?
The tendency for most analysts when they heard about the Haren trade was to tout the idea that pitchers moving from the AL to NL have a much easier transition if for no other reason than they get to face the opposing pitcher once every nine batters. The righty`s career is trending up in every direction except fly ball rate, which is troubling considering the fact I beat home repeatedly about Chase Field ranking near the top of the league in homers allowed. He clearly had a growth season in 2007 and while the significant workload has yet to have an effect on his numbers I have a hard time expecting him to top last year`s numbers.
3) Who emerges as the Rockies second baseman and should it matter to fantasy owners?
When Kaz Matsui left Colorado for Houston this offseason, it opened up a hole at second the size of a pair of Rocky Mountain oysters. That resulted in the Rockies reaching to pluck the washed up Marcus Giles from the free agent waters to battle Jeff Baker, Omar Quintanilla, Jayson Nix, Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes for the starting second base job. According to recent reports in the Rocky Mountain News, the battle is down to Baker and Nix, with Baker having a slight edge, but to put into perspective just how clear this battle is, the Denver Post reported on Sunday that Nix may actually have the edge for the starting job. Maybe the Daily Camera, Pueblo Chieftain, or Bailey Republican and Fairplay Flume would like to chime in on the subject? And yes, there is actually a newspaper called the Republican and Fairplay Flume. The reality of this situation is that the Rockies will probably platoon two or three players until a hot hand emerges and by, "hot" I mean slightly less lousy than the alternatives. Unless you are in a keeper league where a guy like Stewart may have some value, the best decision would be to avoid this situation altogether.
4) Why doesn`t Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis get more respect in fantasy circles?
I used to subscribe, heck, even lead the push to avoid Rockies pitchers. That was before the arrival of the humidor and its ability to tame the thin air in Coors Field. Dan Fox of Baseball Prospectus and Mitchell Lichtman at insidethebook.com put together some great research that claims the humidor has reduced the average fly ball distance by 11 feet (that puts it at 329 feet which is just four feet above the league average for all outdoor parks) and cut the number of fly balls that find the seats by eight percent. Part of this should be credited to an improved Rockies pitching staff, but clearly most of the credit goes to the humidor. Perhaps it`s the humidor effect that stands as the reason most fantasy owners are unwilling to give credit to the ability of Francis. They look at his WHIP and/or ERA and run away like they`re facing the proposition of watching a marathon of Mariah Carey`s cinematic debut Glitter. It`s time they realize Francis is really quite a good pitcher. He`s improved his K/9IP, K:BB ratio and BB/9IP over each of the last three seasons, and his ERA has been largely the result of bad luck in the form of balls falling in for hits. He won 17 games last season and there are signs that he is capable of posting an ERA under 4.00; if those are numbers that the other owners in my league aren`t interested in, I`ll be happy to find space for him on my roster.
5) Is 25-25 a possibility this season for Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp?
The Dodgers organization has been quite effective at blocking their young talent by veterans, some of which were still productive, but many of which were past their prime. Kemp is one of the best young talents to pry his way into at-bats, putting up an impressive showing and making scouts and fantasy owners alike drool over his potential. He`s touted as a five-tool star in the making and while there is plenty of truth to that, he still lacks the ability to control the strike zone as seen by his 16:66 BB:K ratio in 292 at-bats last year. I think there is no disputing his skill set, but he is just 23 years old and it may be too much to ask of him to post a line of 25 homers, 25 steals and a .300 average in his first year of what should be a full plate of at-bats.
6) What are reasonable expectations for Hiroki Kuroda?
Over the last few seasons the accessibility of stats and information from the Japanese League has improved significantly. Nevertheless, it still seems like fantasy owners are largely making slightly educated guesses when it comes to predicting how a Kosuke Fukudome or in this case, Hiroki Kuroda, will fare in his first major league season. Reasons to feel good about Kuroda are the fact he`s in a pitcher friendly ballpark and he`s an extreme groundball pitcher with solid control of his pitches. The nature of his game won`t produce many strikeouts and his propensity for groundballs will depend greatly on the defense behind him, which does figure to be fairly good. He should be decent enough to serve as the Dodgers fourth or fifth starter and win 8-10 games while posting an ERA over 4.30 and WHIP over 1.30, which isn`t good enough for him to have a significant role on one of my fantasy rosters.
7) Is there a bounceback season in Andruw Jones` future?
What a mess Jones was in 2007. If you`re trying to build an argument against the theory of contract year players, an essay on Jones would certainly do the trick. Despite a nauseating .222 average last season, Jones still came close to driving in 100 runs, with a total of 94. He is 30 years old, but that isn`t enough reason to believe last year`s struggles are a trend. The pressure of cashing in on free agency was a factor in how aggressively he swung away at anything remotely close to the strike zone. When you consider he moved to a less favorable ballpark for hitters everything seems to appear glass half empty, but it`s worth noting that his contact rate recovered in the second half and his fly ball rate was up for the season. He`s probably never going to hit over 30 homers in a season again, but he should find himself in a solid Dodgers lineup and it wouldn`t be the least bit surprising to see him return to respectability.
8) How stable is Brian Wilson`s job as the Giants closer?
Given the fact many high profile (and lower profile like myself) experts in this industry have long trumpeted the "don`t spend big on closers" strategy, it really amazes me to hear owners in my leagues turning up their nose at closers on what are expected to be bad teams. That said, I heard multiple owners cringe at names like Matt Capps, Troy Percival, Todd Jones and Wilson in my first league auction this past weekend. While it`s obviously nice to invest in closers who are less likely to lose the job, it`s not always possible. That said, it`s not a reason to gauge risk in situations like the Giants bullpen. Joining Wilson in the pen are Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey and Steve Kline, all of whom have 20 or more saves in their career. If you look at the peripheral stats of those players, Wilson clearly has the most upside in the K/9IP department, but nearly all of them have a propensity for walking too many players. While a 5.2 BB/9IP in 58 combined major and minor league innings certainly causes me to pause when it comes to putting Wilson on my roster, I`ll take my chances since he`ll likely come cheap. That said, I think there is a deep sleeper candidate brewing in former top prospect Merkin Valdez, who is back on the radar after he`s clearly starting to regain the strength and command he had prior to missing the 2007 season following Tommy John surgery. I`m not saying he`s even remotely close to applying pressure to Wilson for the job, because he`s not, but there`s clearly enough volatility in the skill sets of the Giants notable bullpen arms and if Wilson doesn`t cut down on the number of free passes he dishes out, it will only be so long before he hands the keys to the closer role to someone else.
9) Is Giants infielder Eugenio Velez a viable option for fantasy owners?
Velez is one of the feel good stories of spring training, as he`s hit .340 and swiped nine bags while earning the praise of manager Bruce Bochy. We know that it`s just spring training and that doesn`t translate directly to regular season success, but it can point to opportunity, particularly when the alternative is average players such as Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia and Kevin Frandsen. "If we want a lineup with speed in there, he gives you another dimension," Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle. "This kid is fun to watch." Despite the fact Vizquel is hurt and second base looks like a Durham-Frandsen platoon, Velez should make the Giants roster and if he continues to perform well in the regular season, we could be looking at a sleeper source for steals. Obviously the Giants aren`t a real strong team so we need to temper our expectations somewhat, but there have been recent reports on MLB.com that acknowledge that the front office knows Velez seems to have an ability to make things happen that isn`t real prevalent on the rest of their roster. He`s certainly a viable option and given the bargain price he should command, fantasy owners in deep mixed leagues may want to consider him as an end-game flier.
10) Could Padres outfielder Chase Headley be a sleeper candidate for NL Rookie of the Year?
Much like Velez, Padres outfielder/third baseman Chase Headley has enjoyed a simmering spring to the tune of a .414 average with three doubles and three homers in 29 at-bats. Last season, Headley led the Texas League (Double-A) in average (.330), on base percentage (.437) and slugging percentage (.580) en route to MVP honors. Not unlike most high profile prospects, his defensive ability -- or lack thereof -- is what stands in his way of a major role with the big league club, but reports out of camp claim he`s been respectable playing left field -- the position he moved to since Kevin Kouzmanoff is firmly entrenched at third base. The National League has a pretty strong rookie class that includes talents like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and many, many more. That said, it`s rare for pitchers to win the award and Bruce doesn`t seem to have as strong of a chance to earn regular playing time to start the season as Headley. That obviously doesn`t mean Bruce can`t arrive to make an impact at mid-season (a la Ryan Braun), but Headley has a history of producing at the minor league level and despite lack of significant experience above Double-A, he appears major league ready. You`ll have to check your league`s eligibility requirement to see if you can put him at third base (where he played in the minors last year). If he earns your league`s approval, he`s certainly worth a flier after the top 14 or 15 third basemen are off the board.
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