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Hillary and Barack aren`t the only people debating lately. I`ve been deep into a discussion with another owner in one of my leagues about the different methods of player evaluation and trying to hone in on the most effective way to do so as we prepare for our 5x5 rotisserie leagues. This has raised a couple very interesting questions regarding how certain stats should be factored into your draft prep and I want to address those inquiries.
The first idea in question was if it`s tougher to make up ground in batting average than it is the other traditional 5x5 roto stats (HR, runs, RBI, SB). Many fantasy owners are scared to take on the low batting average of a slugger like Adam Dunn, because it`s so difficult to make up ground in an indirect percentage-based statistic like average, but isn`t it just as difficult to play catch up in a direct, simple cumulative stat like home runs or RBI. So first I wondered what the average numbers a fantasy team in a standard 5x5 mixed rotisserie league need to accumulate to win the league and thankfully the fine folks at Baseball HQ have done that research for me. The numbers would obviously vary based on the number of teams and size of rosters in a specific league, but years of research have suggested the following numbers should be goals for a fantasy team chasing a championship.
This begged the question, "Well, how many hitters reach certain milestones in some of the categories we`re discussing here?" We can argue about the benchmarks for these categories, but I think the numbers I picked make sense based on the goals established by HQ above.
While the numbers above suggest there are fewer significant sources of stolen bases, I`m skeptical this means we need to aggressively chase any source of 20 or more swipes. Why? The goal totals suggested by HQ claim you need fewer SB to be competitive than you do homers, RBI, or runs. Where the argument with my buddy heated up was to what extent we should use multipliers to weigh stolen bases or homers in a formula we plug into our projections. I told him to tone down the stolen base multiplier because keeping it as aggressive as he had it, would discount home runs. The other difference I saw was that if you chase guys who are putting the most balls over the fence, you are essentially going to benefit (to a certain extent) in three categories: homers, runs and RBI as opposed to just one in stolen base. After some additional discussion, my buddy was on board.
We`re getting slightly off task here... back to why average is harder to make up than homers or steals. If your team starts the season with a month or two of a paltry batting average, it will be difficult to make it up by the end of the season. Why? Consider the fact that the average player`s batting average over the last five years is .269. I contend that if you have a handful of average players and your team is hitting .270 or below, you`re not going to make up much ground by adding a couple .275 or .280 hitters. You`ll need more than a couple .300 hitters to pull that team average up in time to make a difference, hence, my decision to add the .300 column above. There are obviously much fewer .300 hitters than there are 20 homer or 75 RBI guys.
What should we take from this? Let me assure you that I don`t evaluate which hitters to take by batting average, homers, steals, runs or RBI. I look to stats like Contact rate, Fly ball rate, On Base plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) and Batting Eye. It`s nearly impossible to forecast potential player performance using batting average which is where these sabermetric stats come into play.
-Contact rate measures a batters ability to get the head of the bat on the ball by subtracting their strikeouts from their at-bats.
-Fly ball rate can forecast possible power outbursts because if a player is hitting the ball in the air, all the need is a bit of luck and a few minor adjustments to their swing to make more of those outs, homers.
-OPS combines the two main ingredients of offense in the ability to get on base and the ability to move base runners around those bases.
-Batting Eye is one of the stats I like the most because it tells me how well a player does at distinguishing between balls and strikes.
It`s important to note that using these types of stats focus more on skills rather than past results. If a player owns a certain skill set, he is likely to produce better or worse in coming seasons. Stats like batting eye and contact rate can shed light on a player`s skill set and you can start to project the way a hitter is trending in something like batting average or power. When it came down to it, I think I swayed my buddy a bit, though I hope it wasn`t enough to change his draft strategy to closer resemble my own as I don`t need additional challenges at the draft table this weekend.
The first idea in question was if it`s tougher to make up ground in batting average than it is the other traditional 5x5 roto stats (HR, runs, RBI, SB). Many fantasy owners are scared to take on the low batting average of a slugger like Adam Dunn, because it`s so difficult to make up ground in an indirect percentage-based statistic like average, but isn`t it just as difficult to play catch up in a direct, simple cumulative stat like home runs or RBI. So first I wondered what the average numbers a fantasy team in a standard 5x5 mixed rotisserie league need to accumulate to win the league and thankfully the fine folks at Baseball HQ have done that research for me. The numbers would obviously vary based on the number of teams and size of rosters in a specific league, but years of research have suggested the following numbers should be goals for a fantasy team chasing a championship.
| Hitting Categories | |
| Runs | 900 |
| HR | 250 |
| RBI | 950 |
| SB | 150 |
| AVG | 0.283 |
| Pitching Categories | |
| Wins | 85 |
| SV | 70 |
| K | 950 |
| ERA | 3.85 |
| WHIP | 1.31 |
This begged the question, "Well, how many hitters reach certain milestones in some of the categories we`re discussing here?" We can argue about the benchmarks for these categories, but I think the numbers I picked make sense based on the goals established by HQ above.
| Batters Matching the Following Traits | |||||
| Year | 20 HR | 75 RBI | 20 SB | 0.283 | .300 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 86 | 89 | 42 | 81 | 40 |
| 2006 | 91 | 97 | 35 | 85 | 38 |
| 2005 | 78 | 78 | 27 | 71 | 30 |
| 2004 | 93 | 93 | 27 | 76 | 36 |
| 2003 | 86 | 86 | 26 | 73 | 40 |
| 2002 | 81 | 81 | 33 | 61 | 35 |
| 2001 | 90 | 90 | 44 | 66 | 46 |
| 2000 | 102 | 102 | 42 | 86 | 53 |
While the numbers above suggest there are fewer significant sources of stolen bases, I`m skeptical this means we need to aggressively chase any source of 20 or more swipes. Why? The goal totals suggested by HQ claim you need fewer SB to be competitive than you do homers, RBI, or runs. Where the argument with my buddy heated up was to what extent we should use multipliers to weigh stolen bases or homers in a formula we plug into our projections. I told him to tone down the stolen base multiplier because keeping it as aggressive as he had it, would discount home runs. The other difference I saw was that if you chase guys who are putting the most balls over the fence, you are essentially going to benefit (to a certain extent) in three categories: homers, runs and RBI as opposed to just one in stolen base. After some additional discussion, my buddy was on board.
We`re getting slightly off task here... back to why average is harder to make up than homers or steals. If your team starts the season with a month or two of a paltry batting average, it will be difficult to make it up by the end of the season. Why? Consider the fact that the average player`s batting average over the last five years is .269. I contend that if you have a handful of average players and your team is hitting .270 or below, you`re not going to make up much ground by adding a couple .275 or .280 hitters. You`ll need more than a couple .300 hitters to pull that team average up in time to make a difference, hence, my decision to add the .300 column above. There are obviously much fewer .300 hitters than there are 20 homer or 75 RBI guys.
What should we take from this? Let me assure you that I don`t evaluate which hitters to take by batting average, homers, steals, runs or RBI. I look to stats like Contact rate, Fly ball rate, On Base plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) and Batting Eye. It`s nearly impossible to forecast potential player performance using batting average which is where these sabermetric stats come into play.
-Contact rate measures a batters ability to get the head of the bat on the ball by subtracting their strikeouts from their at-bats.
-Fly ball rate can forecast possible power outbursts because if a player is hitting the ball in the air, all the need is a bit of luck and a few minor adjustments to their swing to make more of those outs, homers.
-OPS combines the two main ingredients of offense in the ability to get on base and the ability to move base runners around those bases.
-Batting Eye is one of the stats I like the most because it tells me how well a player does at distinguishing between balls and strikes.
It`s important to note that using these types of stats focus more on skills rather than past results. If a player owns a certain skill set, he is likely to produce better or worse in coming seasons. Stats like batting eye and contact rate can shed light on a player`s skill set and you can start to project the way a hitter is trending in something like batting average or power. When it came down to it, I think I swayed my buddy a bit, though I hope it wasn`t enough to change his draft strategy to closer resemble my own as I don`t need additional challenges at the draft table this weekend.
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