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The Market
by Chris Bracke on April 11 2008
In the market we scour over the stats and determine which players fantasy owners should consider buying low and selling high, along with our favorite free agent owners should consider adding to their roster. Decisions like these can be the difference in a winning and losing fantasy squad, so without further adieu, here are your candidates for this week`s column.
BUY LOW:
RP Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks
To this day it`s absolutely mind numbing that one of the first things Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin did when 2007 major league saves leader Jose Valverde was dealt this past offseason, was to name Brandon Lyon the closer. The announcement was made in a way that suggested Lyon could commit treason, or admit to being a closet fan of the brief-lived ABC show "Are You Hot," before the Diamondbacks would pull him from the closer role. Well, one thing that certainly isn`t hot is Lyon`s sketchy performance so far this season, as seen by the six hits (including two homers), four earned runs and two blown saves over his first three innings of work.
Despite his struggles, management continued praising Lyon on Tuesday. "We have confidence in him," Melvin told the Arizona Republic. "A couple of outings isn`t going to take away from the fact that this is a guy we expect to pitch the ninth inning for us. That`s the way it remains right now." Even general manager Josh Byrnes got in on the action, adding that in "The first week, good or bad, the results get magnified. He`s already had success in the ninth in his career and I`m sure he`ll pitch his way through it."
I have a problem being anything but skeptical when it comes to Lyon. He did pick up a win over that stretch, but it`s becoming abundantly clear that time is running out to get your hands on Tony Pena at a discounted rate. I like extreme groundball pitcher Chad Qualls much more than either Lyon or Pena, but it`s highly unlikely that D-backs management wouldn`t give Pena the first shot once they realize Lyon isn`t the answer (Qualls only got a save last weekend because Lyon had already pitched). If you subscribe to the theory of getting saves in the most cost efficient way possible, the window is closing on your opportunity to add Pena to your roster.
SELL HIGH:
C Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers
It was extremely tempting to put Athletics pitcher Rich Harden in this spot prior to his strained lat muscle, but now that he`s injured you obviously can`t sell high. Heck, I have doubts whether or not fantasy owners can pawn him off at a premium price even when he`s 100 percent healthy.
Any fantasy owner who has played the game for more than a few seasons has probably already written off Kendall for dead despite his hot start to the 2008 season. Nevertheless, his .538 average in 26 at-bats is tops among catchers, making him one of the most added players in fantasy baseball so far this season. Before you start believing you`ve found your savior at a position still relatively thin on talent, consider he`s hit above .300 just twice in the last seven seasons, and you have to go back to his Pirates days earlier this decade to find seasons in which he routinely put up run totals over 80 and swiped double-digit bags in a single season. There are many fantasy owners who are desperate for production from the catcher position that are blinded by the fact batters like Kendall are way past their prime. If you can get anything of value in a package deal or even a young player with upside like Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn, Indians outfielder Franklin Gutierrez or White Sox hurler John Danks, it`s worth the gamble at this young point in the season.
CLAIM: RP Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants
By the time you read this, J.J. Putz`s possible replacements will have likely been claimed from your league`s waiver wire. In an article like this is can be difficult to pinpoint how deep to dig for possible free agents, but it`s safe to say that the average fantasy baseball league is rotisserie based and comprised of 12 owners that assemble their rosters from both the American and National leagues. Former top pitching prospect Merkin Valdez may be a bit obscure for some leagues, but he`s precisely the type of pitcher you have to monitor and claim early to not get beaten to the punch by your competition.
Valdez was once considered an elite pitching prospect with great command of an impressive arsenal that included a 96-mph fastball with late movement as well as a developing cutter and sinking changeup. His career thus far has been littered with injuries, including Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season. An impressive (albeit brief) spot start in which he struck out four batters in two hitless innings against the Dodgers showed he`s finally healthy an earned a lot more attention from the Giants coaching staff. Manager Bruce Bochy went so far as suggesting Valdez may get a shot to pitch in more pressure situations such as late relief. "The way he threw in L.A., the way he threw this spring, he`s really come along," Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle last Friday. "That`s where I see him eventually, possibly sooner rather than later, the guy helping out in later innings. It`s pretty neat to see, how far he has come along."
I know what you`re saying, how does an oft-injured, seemingly failed prospect steal a significant role from guys like Brad Hennessey and Brian Wilson? In the case of Hennessey, he`s been awful this spring, which led to Bochy already looking to Valdez to claim a bigger role in the Giants` pen. Wilson won the closer job, but he`s far from a sure bet as his 5.2 walks in nine innings, 1.4 K:BB ratio, and 1.38 WHIP in 58 combined major and minor league innings in 2007 can attest. His three earned runs, 3.0 K/9IP, 0.5 K:B ratio and one blown save so far this season (albeit in a brief three innings) haven`t done anything to change my feelings, and he`s had a problem with control throughout his professional career. Despite some minor progress after the All-Star break last year, the door is clearly open for a pitcher who can be more dominant. The pitcher most likely to kick that door open is Valdez, and that should earn him a spot on the radar, and eventually the roster, of fantasy owners in deep mixed leagues.
BUY LOW:
RP Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks
To this day it`s absolutely mind numbing that one of the first things Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin did when 2007 major league saves leader Jose Valverde was dealt this past offseason, was to name Brandon Lyon the closer. The announcement was made in a way that suggested Lyon could commit treason, or admit to being a closet fan of the brief-lived ABC show "Are You Hot," before the Diamondbacks would pull him from the closer role. Well, one thing that certainly isn`t hot is Lyon`s sketchy performance so far this season, as seen by the six hits (including two homers), four earned runs and two blown saves over his first three innings of work.
Despite his struggles, management continued praising Lyon on Tuesday. "We have confidence in him," Melvin told the Arizona Republic. "A couple of outings isn`t going to take away from the fact that this is a guy we expect to pitch the ninth inning for us. That`s the way it remains right now." Even general manager Josh Byrnes got in on the action, adding that in "The first week, good or bad, the results get magnified. He`s already had success in the ninth in his career and I`m sure he`ll pitch his way through it."
I have a problem being anything but skeptical when it comes to Lyon. He did pick up a win over that stretch, but it`s becoming abundantly clear that time is running out to get your hands on Tony Pena at a discounted rate. I like extreme groundball pitcher Chad Qualls much more than either Lyon or Pena, but it`s highly unlikely that D-backs management wouldn`t give Pena the first shot once they realize Lyon isn`t the answer (Qualls only got a save last weekend because Lyon had already pitched). If you subscribe to the theory of getting saves in the most cost efficient way possible, the window is closing on your opportunity to add Pena to your roster.
SELL HIGH:
C Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers
It was extremely tempting to put Athletics pitcher Rich Harden in this spot prior to his strained lat muscle, but now that he`s injured you obviously can`t sell high. Heck, I have doubts whether or not fantasy owners can pawn him off at a premium price even when he`s 100 percent healthy.
Any fantasy owner who has played the game for more than a few seasons has probably already written off Kendall for dead despite his hot start to the 2008 season. Nevertheless, his .538 average in 26 at-bats is tops among catchers, making him one of the most added players in fantasy baseball so far this season. Before you start believing you`ve found your savior at a position still relatively thin on talent, consider he`s hit above .300 just twice in the last seven seasons, and you have to go back to his Pirates days earlier this decade to find seasons in which he routinely put up run totals over 80 and swiped double-digit bags in a single season. There are many fantasy owners who are desperate for production from the catcher position that are blinded by the fact batters like Kendall are way past their prime. If you can get anything of value in a package deal or even a young player with upside like Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn, Indians outfielder Franklin Gutierrez or White Sox hurler John Danks, it`s worth the gamble at this young point in the season.
CLAIM: RP Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants
By the time you read this, J.J. Putz`s possible replacements will have likely been claimed from your league`s waiver wire. In an article like this is can be difficult to pinpoint how deep to dig for possible free agents, but it`s safe to say that the average fantasy baseball league is rotisserie based and comprised of 12 owners that assemble their rosters from both the American and National leagues. Former top pitching prospect Merkin Valdez may be a bit obscure for some leagues, but he`s precisely the type of pitcher you have to monitor and claim early to not get beaten to the punch by your competition.
Valdez was once considered an elite pitching prospect with great command of an impressive arsenal that included a 96-mph fastball with late movement as well as a developing cutter and sinking changeup. His career thus far has been littered with injuries, including Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season. An impressive (albeit brief) spot start in which he struck out four batters in two hitless innings against the Dodgers showed he`s finally healthy an earned a lot more attention from the Giants coaching staff. Manager Bruce Bochy went so far as suggesting Valdez may get a shot to pitch in more pressure situations such as late relief. "The way he threw in L.A., the way he threw this spring, he`s really come along," Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle last Friday. "That`s where I see him eventually, possibly sooner rather than later, the guy helping out in later innings. It`s pretty neat to see, how far he has come along."
I know what you`re saying, how does an oft-injured, seemingly failed prospect steal a significant role from guys like Brad Hennessey and Brian Wilson? In the case of Hennessey, he`s been awful this spring, which led to Bochy already looking to Valdez to claim a bigger role in the Giants` pen. Wilson won the closer job, but he`s far from a sure bet as his 5.2 walks in nine innings, 1.4 K:BB ratio, and 1.38 WHIP in 58 combined major and minor league innings in 2007 can attest. His three earned runs, 3.0 K/9IP, 0.5 K:B ratio and one blown save so far this season (albeit in a brief three innings) haven`t done anything to change my feelings, and he`s had a problem with control throughout his professional career. Despite some minor progress after the All-Star break last year, the door is clearly open for a pitcher who can be more dominant. The pitcher most likely to kick that door open is Valdez, and that should earn him a spot on the radar, and eventually the roster, of fantasy owners in deep mixed leagues.
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