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The Market
by Chris Bracke on April 25 2008
In the market we scour over the stats and determine which players fantasy owners should consider buying low and selling high along with our favorite free agent those owners should consider adding to their roster. Decisions like these can be the difference in a winning and losing fantasy squad, so without further adieu, here are your candidates for this week`s column.
BUY LOW:
2B Placido Polanco, Tigers
I realize you`re worried because he`s nowhere close to the player who set career highs in batting average, RBI and runs last season, but it`s far too early to write him off. A back injury has been much to blame for his mediocre results, but an MRI earlier this week revealed that there is no structural damage and he`s on a regimen of medication that should get him back in the lineup quickly. "They said [the medication] could work right away and make him feel good," manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com.
Buying low on injured players is a tricky task to accomplish, but it can be easier when there is plenty of evidence that suggests the risk worth taking. Beyond the obvious fact that he hits in a lineup that will produce runs consistently over the course of the season, Polanco has hit .295 or higher in each of the last four seasons, including over .315 in two of the last three years. He`s obviously not going to outproduce the top second baseman in fantasy baseball, but if you need upside in the batting average and runs categories, now may be your buy low opportunity.
SELL HIGH:
SP Cliff Lee, Indians
A badly strained abdominal muscle ruined Lee`s 2007 season and is largely responsible for his sliding into the tier of mediocre starting pitchers fantasy owners want very little to do with. A little bit of good fortune in the health department and suddenly Lee is 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA, 0.41 WHIP and 8.24 K/9IP. This is certainly a positive development, but the problem is that his fly ball rate and HR/9IP have been steadily increasing over the last three seasons and not even his first 31.2 innings this season is enough to convince me that trend is over. His success has caused some fantasy owners to overlook that the negative trends in his skill set are still trending the wrong direction and in a ballpark that produced the sixth-most homers in the American League, it`s a bit troubling that not only do chicks dig the long ball, but Cliff wants to be more than friends with dingers as well. There is a strict no-spooning policy here at Mock Draft Central.
Nevertheless, there are fantasy owners lining up to throw significant talent at you for the opportunity to acquire Lee and you have to consider making a deal while the time is right. It`s highly likely that Lee was one of those late-round flier picks made after your pitching may already have been in good shape and if that`s the case, you may be able to afford to give up a little pitching depth to address another area of need. If that isn`t the case, target a starting pitcher who may be pitching just below expectation so far and try to get him and another player to help your team.
CLAIM:
2B Clint Barmes, Rockies
"I will not be having a press conference to announce our second-base position."
That is Rockies manager Clint Hurdle`s quote regarding the emergence of Barmes and his unofficially being named the starting second baseman after a spring battle excluded him from contention for the role. "Barmes has to get first shot now and get every opportunity to ride the momentum he`s picked up," Hurdle told the Rocky Mountain News.
He`s been written off by most of the reputable sources in this industry including Baseball Prospectus, who claimed he is "slated to be the utility infielder this year." That may be a bit harsh, but you can hardly blame them considering Barmes hadn`t shown an inkling of the skill set he had before breaking his collarbone in 2005. Despite the skeptical outlook, there are signs that his early season performance is not a fluke.
His contact rate has slid slightly from its insanely high 90 percent in 2005, but it`s remained noticeably above average since, including through 42 at-bats this season. On top of that, he may only have one homer to show for it, but his fly-ball rate has been on the rise ever since his promising rookie campaign. Will he hit over .400 all season? Obviously not, but how well is your second baseman swinging the bat these days? Unless you answered confidently by rattling off the numbers of Utley or Aaron Hill, Barmes is probably worth a look.
BUY LOW:
2B Placido Polanco, Tigers
I realize you`re worried because he`s nowhere close to the player who set career highs in batting average, RBI and runs last season, but it`s far too early to write him off. A back injury has been much to blame for his mediocre results, but an MRI earlier this week revealed that there is no structural damage and he`s on a regimen of medication that should get him back in the lineup quickly. "They said [the medication] could work right away and make him feel good," manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com.
Buying low on injured players is a tricky task to accomplish, but it can be easier when there is plenty of evidence that suggests the risk worth taking. Beyond the obvious fact that he hits in a lineup that will produce runs consistently over the course of the season, Polanco has hit .295 or higher in each of the last four seasons, including over .315 in two of the last three years. He`s obviously not going to outproduce the top second baseman in fantasy baseball, but if you need upside in the batting average and runs categories, now may be your buy low opportunity.
SELL HIGH:
SP Cliff Lee, Indians
A badly strained abdominal muscle ruined Lee`s 2007 season and is largely responsible for his sliding into the tier of mediocre starting pitchers fantasy owners want very little to do with. A little bit of good fortune in the health department and suddenly Lee is 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA, 0.41 WHIP and 8.24 K/9IP. This is certainly a positive development, but the problem is that his fly ball rate and HR/9IP have been steadily increasing over the last three seasons and not even his first 31.2 innings this season is enough to convince me that trend is over. His success has caused some fantasy owners to overlook that the negative trends in his skill set are still trending the wrong direction and in a ballpark that produced the sixth-most homers in the American League, it`s a bit troubling that not only do chicks dig the long ball, but Cliff wants to be more than friends with dingers as well. There is a strict no-spooning policy here at Mock Draft Central.
Nevertheless, there are fantasy owners lining up to throw significant talent at you for the opportunity to acquire Lee and you have to consider making a deal while the time is right. It`s highly likely that Lee was one of those late-round flier picks made after your pitching may already have been in good shape and if that`s the case, you may be able to afford to give up a little pitching depth to address another area of need. If that isn`t the case, target a starting pitcher who may be pitching just below expectation so far and try to get him and another player to help your team.
CLAIM:
2B Clint Barmes, Rockies
"I will not be having a press conference to announce our second-base position."
That is Rockies manager Clint Hurdle`s quote regarding the emergence of Barmes and his unofficially being named the starting second baseman after a spring battle excluded him from contention for the role. "Barmes has to get first shot now and get every opportunity to ride the momentum he`s picked up," Hurdle told the Rocky Mountain News.
He`s been written off by most of the reputable sources in this industry including Baseball Prospectus, who claimed he is "slated to be the utility infielder this year." That may be a bit harsh, but you can hardly blame them considering Barmes hadn`t shown an inkling of the skill set he had before breaking his collarbone in 2005. Despite the skeptical outlook, there are signs that his early season performance is not a fluke.
His contact rate has slid slightly from its insanely high 90 percent in 2005, but it`s remained noticeably above average since, including through 42 at-bats this season. On top of that, he may only have one homer to show for it, but his fly-ball rate has been on the rise ever since his promising rookie campaign. Will he hit over .400 all season? Obviously not, but how well is your second baseman swinging the bat these days? Unless you answered confidently by rattling off the numbers of Utley or Aaron Hill, Barmes is probably worth a look.
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