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Ex-Dolphin Jason Taylor didn`t have much to do with Miami`s No. 4 pass defese
photo by Icon Sports Media, Inc
In general, fantasy players tend to overanalyze. Not that there`s anything wrong with that. After all, there is a lot on the line: money, trophies, pride and most importantly, eight months worth of bragging rights.
One of the most overanalyzed facets of Fantasy Football is strength of schedule (SOS). For those unfamiliar with SOS and how it relates to the game, it`s basically studying which offensive players have the most favorable schedule -- against the worst opposing defenses -- for the upcoming season.
The main flaw to using SOS as a pre-drafting tool is that most of the information is based upon numbers from the 2007 season, which ended in December. In the four months since, the NFL has gone through salary cap cuts, a free agency period, the NFL Draft, arrests, suspensions and injuries. In today`s league, it`s possible for a team`s defense to dramatically improve or take a huge step backward in the span of a few months.
To show how big of a difference a season can make, let`s compare the defensive ratings (1-32) from the 2006 season to the 2007 season.
Last season, 13 teams (41 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their passing yards allowed per game rating from the year prior.
The biggest mover was the Saints, who rated 30th overall in 2007 after finishing the 2006 season with the NFL`s third best pass defense.
The numbers were very similar when it came to run defense.
Twelve teams (38 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their rushing yards allowed per game rating from 2006.
The biggest mover was the Eagles, who gained 19 spots on their rating -- moving up to No. 7 overall in 2007 from No. 26 overall in 2006.
Projecting strength of schedule can be tricky for one main reason: defensive statistics are highly overrated. Unlike baseball, football statistics don`t always tell the complete story about a team and its on-field play.
A perfect example of this is last season`s No. 4 rated passing defense, the Dolphins. The ineptness of the offense (rated 28th in the NFL in yards per game) and defense`s inability to stop the run (rated dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed) played more of a role in Miami`s opponents averaging 188.7 passing yards per game than superior talent and good coaching schemes. There was no need for opposing teams to throw the football with a healthy lead and successful ground attack.
When preparing for a draft, it`s best to look ahead, not backward. And while SOS may focus on the upcoming season, the numbers used come from 2007. Not good -- 2007 is so last year.
One of the most overanalyzed facets of Fantasy Football is strength of schedule (SOS). For those unfamiliar with SOS and how it relates to the game, it`s basically studying which offensive players have the most favorable schedule -- against the worst opposing defenses -- for the upcoming season.
The main flaw to using SOS as a pre-drafting tool is that most of the information is based upon numbers from the 2007 season, which ended in December. In the four months since, the NFL has gone through salary cap cuts, a free agency period, the NFL Draft, arrests, suspensions and injuries. In today`s league, it`s possible for a team`s defense to dramatically improve or take a huge step backward in the span of a few months.
To show how big of a difference a season can make, let`s compare the defensive ratings (1-32) from the 2006 season to the 2007 season.
Last season, 13 teams (41 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their passing yards allowed per game rating from the year prior.
The biggest mover was the Saints, who rated 30th overall in 2007 after finishing the 2006 season with the NFL`s third best pass defense.
The numbers were very similar when it came to run defense.
Twelve teams (38 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their rushing yards allowed per game rating from 2006.
The biggest mover was the Eagles, who gained 19 spots on their rating -- moving up to No. 7 overall in 2007 from No. 26 overall in 2006.
Projecting strength of schedule can be tricky for one main reason: defensive statistics are highly overrated. Unlike baseball, football statistics don`t always tell the complete story about a team and its on-field play.
A perfect example of this is last season`s No. 4 rated passing defense, the Dolphins. The ineptness of the offense (rated 28th in the NFL in yards per game) and defense`s inability to stop the run (rated dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed) played more of a role in Miami`s opponents averaging 188.7 passing yards per game than superior talent and good coaching schemes. There was no need for opposing teams to throw the football with a healthy lead and successful ground attack.
When preparing for a draft, it`s best to look ahead, not backward. And while SOS may focus on the upcoming season, the numbers used come from 2007. Not good -- 2007 is so last year.
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