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Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.
The NFL regular season kicks off in just over three months, meaning we`ve arrived to the tricky part of the offseason.
Teams soon report to organized team activities (OTAs) and we`ll be bombarded with information across the league. Unfortunately, some information ultimately ensnares numerous enthusiasts into overvaluing or devaluing players.
With that in mind, what follows should help with making informed decisions for upcoming drafts.
Offseason workouts
Too many are caught up in what is reported out of minicamps and OTAs. And this is all for a good reason -- we crave any information leading to August preseason games.
Note this is the official time of the year when coaches speak highly of players or single out individual efforts. And while you won`t hear a coach stating his aging veteran is washed up, you also won`t hear a coach point out his promising young wide receiver has hands of stone or can`t catch a cold.
The positive spin is in full effect heading into August.
Still, it`s important to not overanalyze offseason reports. Why? Because no hitting is allowed and the players aren`t in pads.
There`s a huge difference in how a player looks running in just a helmet and shorts with no contact to how they`ll look in August wearing full gear while facing defenders who have the green light to deliver a bone-crushing hit.
Use reports from minicamps and OTAs for informational purposes only and not hard evidence for a player`s projected production.
Coach-speak
"He`s a good football player," former Kansas City Chiefs coach Herm Edwards was fond of saying when asked about a player.
Most of us in the Kansas City media grew accustomed to hearing that statement at news conferences and after practices the previous three years.
Now I admire Edwards, a good man and a great person to talk to. But when translating his standard statement, it`s best to understand that the player better be good in the first place since he`s on an NFL roster.
The big word we`ll hear a lot in the coming weeks is "expect," as in a coach saying, "We expect him to see plenty of playing time," or, "We expect to open up the passing game."
Don`t overreact unless the coach says definitively that the player will see playing time. Of course, what the player does during training camp and preseason action goes a long way in determining if he`s indeed expected to see significant time once the regular season arrives.
As for the latter statement, which we heard from the Buffalo Bills last offseason, seeing is believing.
The SOS
Evaluating the Strength of Schedule is overrated at this point of the year. Once the regular season is underway, it`s important to note a majority of NFL coaches go back 3-4 weeks to game plan for the week`s opponent.
As such, it`s virtually impossible for our purposes to gauge overall defensive trends until after the first month of the NFL regular season.
Last year`s defensive statistics fail to factor in offseason free agent additions, personnel losses, the NFL Draft, change of head coaches, new coordinators, shifting of philosophies and impact injuries.
Using the latter as an example, the San Diego Chargers ranked at or near the bottom of most defensive categories against the pass. If you use that statistic without asking why, you`ll overlook the early season loss of linebacker Shawn Merriman, a pass rusher supreme, to a knee injury.
With Merriman out, San Diego`s pass rush suffered through just 27 sacks on the season, a far cry from the 42 registered in 2007 when Merriman accounted for 12.5 sacks. In fact, no Charger had more than eight sacks last season.
The team is taking it easy on Merriman during OTAs, but he returns this season. Toss in the team`s drafting of defensive end/linebacker Larry English, a solid pass rusher in his own right, and the pass defense will improve.
Additionally, an offensive elite player is elite for a reason and it shouldn`t matter who he`s facing. Are you shying away from Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner because he faces the traditional strong defenses of the NFC East or the AFC East this season?
On paper, I`ll agree that appears brutal, but you better factor in Atlanta`s acquisition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, whose presence means safeties can`t cheat to stop the run. It would be shocking if Turner is facing eight-man fronts with Gonzalez underneath and wide receiver Roddy White on the outside.
If you`re using 2008 defensive stats solely as a baseline for 2009 projections and rankings, you`re already in the trap. What appears to be an easy or hard schedule for a player may not be the case once the season rolls along.
The rookie receiver
We love the impact rookie. And while it`s proven the position to lock on is running back, many insist on taking a rookie wide receiver before Round 10.
Folks, that`s a mistake.
There have been numerous high-profile receivers who enjoyed prolific college careers. However, it`s imperative to remember that since 1995 only six receivers broke out for 1,000 yards in their first season.
The short list includes:
-1995 -- Joey Galloway had 1,039 yards with the Seattle Seahawks
-1996 -- Terry Glenn had 1,132 yards with the New England Patriots
-1998 -- Randy Moss had 1,313 yards with the Minnesota Vikings
-2003 -- Anquan Boldin had 1,377 yards with the Arizona Cardinals
-2004 -- Michael Clayton had 1,193 yards with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2006 -- Marques Colston had 1,038 yards with the New Orleans Saints
Unless you`re drafting for a dynasty or large keeper league, consider the above when gauging the overall value of Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin in traditional redraft leagues.
Both are sure to draw laudatory comments from coaches during workouts. However, the odds of either, or any rookie receiver, exploding for a 1,000-yard season are not on your side.
Staying informed
I make this point in my annual "D-Day is coming ... Draft Day that is" article, but it`s good to point this out now.
The industry is saturated with information, thanks largely to the Internet. However, the overload isn`t a bad thing because an informed owner is typically the most successful.
In the coming weeks, newsstands will be full of fantasy-related magazines. Feel free to buy them if you desire good reading, but it`s imperative to reinforce what you read in hard print by visiting respectable Web sites specifically designed for daily player news and updates.
The NFL regular season kicks off in just over three months, meaning we`ve arrived to the tricky part of the offseason.
Teams soon report to organized team activities (OTAs) and we`ll be bombarded with information across the league. Unfortunately, some information ultimately ensnares numerous enthusiasts into overvaluing or devaluing players.
With that in mind, what follows should help with making informed decisions for upcoming drafts.
Offseason workouts
Too many are caught up in what is reported out of minicamps and OTAs. And this is all for a good reason -- we crave any information leading to August preseason games.
Note this is the official time of the year when coaches speak highly of players or single out individual efforts. And while you won`t hear a coach stating his aging veteran is washed up, you also won`t hear a coach point out his promising young wide receiver has hands of stone or can`t catch a cold.
The positive spin is in full effect heading into August.
Still, it`s important to not overanalyze offseason reports. Why? Because no hitting is allowed and the players aren`t in pads.
There`s a huge difference in how a player looks running in just a helmet and shorts with no contact to how they`ll look in August wearing full gear while facing defenders who have the green light to deliver a bone-crushing hit.
Use reports from minicamps and OTAs for informational purposes only and not hard evidence for a player`s projected production.
Coach-speak
"He`s a good football player," former Kansas City Chiefs coach Herm Edwards was fond of saying when asked about a player.
Most of us in the Kansas City media grew accustomed to hearing that statement at news conferences and after practices the previous three years.
Now I admire Edwards, a good man and a great person to talk to. But when translating his standard statement, it`s best to understand that the player better be good in the first place since he`s on an NFL roster.
The big word we`ll hear a lot in the coming weeks is "expect," as in a coach saying, "We expect him to see plenty of playing time," or, "We expect to open up the passing game."
Don`t overreact unless the coach says definitively that the player will see playing time. Of course, what the player does during training camp and preseason action goes a long way in determining if he`s indeed expected to see significant time once the regular season arrives.
As for the latter statement, which we heard from the Buffalo Bills last offseason, seeing is believing.
The SOS
Evaluating the Strength of Schedule is overrated at this point of the year. Once the regular season is underway, it`s important to note a majority of NFL coaches go back 3-4 weeks to game plan for the week`s opponent.
As such, it`s virtually impossible for our purposes to gauge overall defensive trends until after the first month of the NFL regular season.
Last year`s defensive statistics fail to factor in offseason free agent additions, personnel losses, the NFL Draft, change of head coaches, new coordinators, shifting of philosophies and impact injuries.
Using the latter as an example, the San Diego Chargers ranked at or near the bottom of most defensive categories against the pass. If you use that statistic without asking why, you`ll overlook the early season loss of linebacker Shawn Merriman, a pass rusher supreme, to a knee injury.
With Merriman out, San Diego`s pass rush suffered through just 27 sacks on the season, a far cry from the 42 registered in 2007 when Merriman accounted for 12.5 sacks. In fact, no Charger had more than eight sacks last season.
The team is taking it easy on Merriman during OTAs, but he returns this season. Toss in the team`s drafting of defensive end/linebacker Larry English, a solid pass rusher in his own right, and the pass defense will improve.
Additionally, an offensive elite player is elite for a reason and it shouldn`t matter who he`s facing. Are you shying away from Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner because he faces the traditional strong defenses of the NFC East or the AFC East this season?
On paper, I`ll agree that appears brutal, but you better factor in Atlanta`s acquisition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, whose presence means safeties can`t cheat to stop the run. It would be shocking if Turner is facing eight-man fronts with Gonzalez underneath and wide receiver Roddy White on the outside.
If you`re using 2008 defensive stats solely as a baseline for 2009 projections and rankings, you`re already in the trap. What appears to be an easy or hard schedule for a player may not be the case once the season rolls along.
The rookie receiver
We love the impact rookie. And while it`s proven the position to lock on is running back, many insist on taking a rookie wide receiver before Round 10.
Folks, that`s a mistake.
There have been numerous high-profile receivers who enjoyed prolific college careers. However, it`s imperative to remember that since 1995 only six receivers broke out for 1,000 yards in their first season.
The short list includes:
-1995 -- Joey Galloway had 1,039 yards with the Seattle Seahawks
-1996 -- Terry Glenn had 1,132 yards with the New England Patriots
-1998 -- Randy Moss had 1,313 yards with the Minnesota Vikings
-2003 -- Anquan Boldin had 1,377 yards with the Arizona Cardinals
-2004 -- Michael Clayton had 1,193 yards with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2006 -- Marques Colston had 1,038 yards with the New Orleans Saints
Unless you`re drafting for a dynasty or large keeper league, consider the above when gauging the overall value of Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin in traditional redraft leagues.
Both are sure to draw laudatory comments from coaches during workouts. However, the odds of either, or any rookie receiver, exploding for a 1,000-yard season are not on your side.
Staying informed
I make this point in my annual "D-Day is coming ... Draft Day that is" article, but it`s good to point this out now.
The industry is saturated with information, thanks largely to the Internet. However, the overload isn`t a bad thing because an informed owner is typically the most successful.
In the coming weeks, newsstands will be full of fantasy-related magazines. Feel free to buy them if you desire good reading, but it`s imperative to reinforce what you read in hard print by visiting respectable Web sites specifically designed for daily player news and updates.
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