MLB Mock Market Report - February Fallers

Even before the start of spring training battles, late-winter signings (or inactivity in the case of free agents) can send players tumbling down the draft board. In some instances, the market begins to correct itself as owners find better value in later rounds while going through their draft preparation. This week`s edition of the Mock Market Report will focus on players who have had their ADP value decrease by at least five percent over the last two weeks.

Michael Bourn, OF, HOU (ADP: 77.47, -12.1%) - Is it the realization that there are cheaper options available who can do the same thing as Bourn? He`ll offer a decent average, 40-plus steals and a bucket of runs scored, but isn`t that exactly what you`ll get from Nyjer Morgan (131.23) four or five rounds later? Even Juan Pierre at 222.76 (yes, that`s really 12-plus rounds after Bourn is coming off the board) can return similar value over the course of 2010. Every year, stolen-base specialists emerge in the endgame of drafts as spring training position battles begin to shake out, don`t overpay for last year`s surprise in the early-middle rounds.

Russell Branyan, 1B, FA (ADP: 231.63, -11.8%) - The truth is, he was miscast as an everyday player last season. Branyan has always mashed against right-handed pitchers at the expense of a high strikeout rate. The Mariners were the first team to provide him with 400-plus at-bats in a season, so it`s no surprise that he swatted 31 homers at age 33. His .193/.274/.414 line after the All-Star break removed any hope of him getting a deal early in free agency and it`s beginning to appear as though he may be forced into taking a very small one-year deal - perhaps even an NRI - to prove that he`s healthy enough to contribute in 2010. He`ll never get that much playing time again, so expect his ADP to continue tumbling even if he finds a new home as spring training gets underway.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, FA (ADP: 182.16, -9.2%) - Even as a 37-year-old coming back from hip surgery, it`s hard to believe that Delgado - the same guy who swatted 38 homers in 2008 for the Mets and is just 27 long balls away from 500 - is still looking for work. Reports have suggested that retirement is an option, but more recently the indications are that he`ll wait until he`s needed once the season begins before signing. The concerns appear to surround his inability to handle first-base defensively on more than an occasional basis. As a result, the number of suitors interested in signing him are very limited. It sure seems like he`d be an upgrade for the Tigers or Rays (who are stuck with Pat Burrell) and the Royals definitely missed the boat by bringing in a slew of mediocre free agents, so they`re probably out.

Jack Cust, OF, OAK (ADP: 197.23, -7.2%) - As skill sets go, Cust doesn`t have the type that ages well. His slash line has regressed from 2007 to 2009 (OBP - .408, .375, .356 and SLG - .504, .476, .417) and his days in Oakland appear to be numbered. That said, a deteriorating set of tools may not be the culprit for his slide, especially when you consider that his playing time steadily increased during that span and he`s better suited to start against righties (.247/.369/.461 in 373 at-bats last season) and sit against lefties (.221/.321/.300 in 140 at-bats). With a part-time role, he can still be a good source of cheap power and with fewer at-bats, his low batting average won`t sting quite as much.

Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL (ADP: 247.37, -6.1%) - Looking at a high-upside young player like Gomez with a falling ADP and no injury to speak of, you can`t help but wonder if he`s slipping because of the signing of Jim Edmonds. For nearly a 10-year period beginning around 1997, Edmonds was the best defensive center fielder in baseball. At age 40 and after a one-year break, he`s not going to suddenly be a reliable option with the glove for the Brewers in center field, especially when you consider his -2.7 UZR with St. Louis in 2007 before his -23.3 UZR between San Diego and Chicago in 2008. Back to Gomez. Remember the cheap speedsters we were talking about earlier? He could definitely be one of them and with such a low ADP, it`s not hard to envision him on many championship fantasy rosters in September.

Jason Bay, OF, NYM (ADP: 27.91, -5.9%) - I wrote this about a month ago when discussing Bay:

Plenty of owners who suffered through David Wright`s 10-homer campaign during the inaugural season at Citi Field may be concerned about Bay`s power numbers getting sapped by the Mets` home park. Those concerns appear to be largely unfounded, especially when you consider that opposing right-handed batters hit more long balls against Mets pitching at Citi Field than they did on the road in 2009.

Downgrading him because of concerns about his knees? Acceptable. Lowering your expectations because you think Citi Field is the second coming of Petco? Tremendous error. Don`t blame the park effects, blame GM Omar Minaya for constructing a roster that was devoid of power from top to bottom when David Wright struggled and Carlos Delgado went down for the season in May.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, TEX (ADP: 138.88, -5.3%) - We may never see Guerrero with a glove in the outfield again as his knees and back are rapidly breaking down. Perhaps a season as the DH in hitter-friendly Arlington with another very talented lineup around him will continue to make Guerrero a useful fantasy option. Is he really any safer than David Ortiz (194.66)? Even though I`m on the side that believes Guerrero still has a little something left in the tank, I`d rather target a high-upside player at this point in drafts than sacrifice the flexibility of my utility spot for an aging free-swinger with significant injury risk.

This has been the Mock Market Report for February 15, 2010.