Mock Market Report

Throughout the player pool, there are year-to-year trends that generally leave many aging players with inflated ADP values based on their historical performance and name recognition. It is these unwritten laws that lead more owners to choose Jorge Posada (120.31) over Miguel Montero (145.16) or Rafael Furcal (134.04) over Elvis Andrus (151.02).

If there`s any position where the opposite effect can occur, it seems to happen with relievers. Ageless wonders are often downgraded, which is counter-intuitive given that simple opportunity trumps the skill set more in the closer`s role than at any other position. As I continue to prepare for my biggest drafts of the year - our 18-team RotoWire Staff Keeper league and the main event of the WCOFB in Las Vegas at end of March - there are three closers coming off the board after the first 15 relievers who appear to be excellent values.

Billy Wagner, ATL (148.97) - I like closers with the mentality of a pit bull. Entering the season, Wagner is an angry pit bull with something to prove, particularly to his old club who just so happens to play in the same division as his new one. If you look back over the last six seasons, Wagner has had one season with a K/9IP below 10.0 - it was a "dismal" 9.96 in 2008. Control was a slight issue for him after his return from Tommy John surgery last season (4.61 BB/9IP in 13.2 innings with Boston), but his three-year average is 2.68 and I would rather bet on his track record and the likelihood that he will be his usually sharp self now that he`s further removed from the operation. Especially when the alternatives include taking a chance on getting a repeat from David Aardsma (153.52) in Seattle.

Trevor Hoffman, MIL (168.04) - The Brewers really lack alternatives to take on the ninth inning even if Hoffman shows signs of scuffling at age 42. Consider that his BABIP (.240 last season) could fluctuate a bit (the byproduct of facing a small number of hitters) and result in a few more baserunners than he had to deal with last season when he gave up just 35 hits in 54 innings. Expect something slightly north of his 2.71 FIP from last season instead of the 1.83 ERA of 2009, but Hoffman keeps opposing hitters off balance with his stuff even though he can`t overpower them anymore.

Kerry Wood, CLE (237.06) - It`s hard to believe that there are 27 relievers coming off the board ahead of Wood. He`s protected by a bloated contract ($10.5 million) that will make it nearly impossible to trade him. Further, his $11 million option for 2011 will only vest if he finishes 55 games this season, something the Indians won`t have to work all that hard to ensure. Chris Perez (334.60) is the closer in waiting and makes for an excellent cheap insurance policy if you`re worried about Wood landing on the DL, but you could lock up 40 saves between the two relievers along with strong strikeout totals for a very low price.

This has been the Mock Market Report for February 22, 2010.