Draft Day Bargains and Busts - Second Base

This is the third installment in a series of positional breakdowns of ADP-based bargains and busts over the next four weeks prior to Opening Day.

I`ll be honest - second base doesn`t excite me.

On the surface, the position seems fairly cut-and-dry, about as predictable as taxes. Chase Utley is the unanimous king of the right side of the middle infield, with Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, and Robinson Cano bringing up the rear.

Like all humans, these men have flaws, but nothing so glaring to make owners apprehensive about using a draft pick on them in the first five rounds.

After that, things get muddy.

Finding anyone who believes Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist will repeat their 2009 seasons is like asking a scientist to believe in Bigfoot, or a member of the paparazzi to believe Lindsay Lohan is sober - they`re skeptical.

Howie Kendrick was a tale of two halves in 2009, and his picture has been stationed under the term "brittle" in the dictionary since he broke into the league. Teams avoided Orlando Hudson like the plague until the Twins finally succumbed, and Jose Lopez`s game is far less bland than his name, but he gets no love playing on the West Coast. How do we make sense of it all? Honestly, we don`t. But hopefully after you click away from this article, you`re left with a few less unanswered questions than when you began.

Three Up:

Rickie Weeks (ADP 189.33):

*** COMEBACK ALERT, COMEBACK ALERT ***

Weeks` season ended far too prematurely because of a tendon tear in his wrist. Yet, the sleeper alarm is blaring in 2010 due to his nine home runs, 24 RBI, and a .272 batting average in a mere 147 at-bats last year. A small sample size, yes, but intriguing nonetheless considering his previous career-high for home runs was 16, and he had been a perennial 15-20 threat over the previous two seasons. I typically don`t endorse taking spring training stats with anything but a grain of salt, but seeing as this is Weeks` first on-field action since May 17, it`s hard to look at .429/.600/.500 and two steals in 14 at-bats and not get a nice little jolt of excitement. He`ll be batting atop the powerful Brewers lineup once again, if he can maintain that respectable batting average and build on the power surge from 2009, a career year could be in order.

Martin Prado (ADP 222.43):

Penciled in to bat second in the Braves` order, and entering his first season as Atlanta`s everyday second baseman with Kelly Johnson shipped out of town, Prado makes an intriguing case for owners who missed out on the bigger, more recognizable names. Nevermind that he can play almost anywhere (he`ll have 1B/2B/3B eligibility in 2010), Prado showed legitimate power and plate discipline last year, batting a cool .307 in 450 at-bats with 11 home runs. It remains to be seen if he`ll develop any speed, but runs should be plentiful, his power is trending upwards, plus he doesn`t have a scrapbook full of injuries like say, Howie Kendrick, another .300 hitter with moderate power who`s being drafted nearly 10 rounds earlier. Save yourself the headache and benefit from Prado`s upside.

Luis Valbuena (ADP 332.90):

The 24-year-old Valbuena rocketed through the minors, and has more major league at-bats (417 over two seasons) than Triple-A ones (275). Going into his first full MLB season with the Indians` second-base job locked up, substantial growth is in the cards. He has a solid line-drive swing, and his 10 home runs tied him for fifth in the majors among all second baseman with fewer than 400 at-bats, despite the fact that nobody really knows who this guy is yet. He swiped 10 bags in just over 200 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, which is promising for a player with Valbuena`s budding power, yet he`s going undrafted in all but five percent of leagues. Put a gun to my head and make me choose between Valbuena and someone like Orlando Hudson - a player with similar skills on the downside of his career who`s being drafted in 100 percent of leagues - and I`ll take the youngster.

Three Down:

Brian Roberts (ADP 49.21):

Roberts is coming along much slower than expected since he was diagnosed with a herniated disc back in mid-February, and his status for Opening day is currently still in question. This wouldn`t be an issue if Roberts weren`t 33 years old with a stolen-base rate that has been steadily dropping over the past two seasons (50,40,30). Back issues have a tendency to linger, and it wouldn`t shock me if another 10 or so steals went by the wayside this season. And although his peripheral stats all stayed relatively stable last season, Roberts looks like a hitter slowly transitioning from speed to power - only he`s never shown anything more than average pop, and he isn`t going to be nominated for a Silver Slugger award any time soon. His K:BB ratio has been steadily moving in the wrong direction since 2007 (99/89, 104/82, 112/74), which is an indication that his batting average may begin to suffer this season if he doesn`t turn it around. We may be looking at a Dan Uggla-wannabe by season`s end, only with less power and a more respectable average.

Dan Uggla (ADP 85.62):

Speak of the devil. Actually, this would be a great spot to talk about Aaron Hill, the only other second baseman outside of Chase Utley to jack more long balls than the unrelentingly consistent Uggla. And while most pundits agree that Hill`s power will regress, I tend to believe it`s Uggla who will see the sharpest drop in power in 2010. The reasons are finicky, and Uggla protractors may cry out that I`m cherry-picking stats here - but since when did looking beyond the box score become a crime? Now despite the fact that Uggla increased his walk totals by 15 from 2008 (77 to 92), he still finished with the lowest batting average (.243) of his four-year major league career. I believe the late-blooming Uggla has peaked, and his three-year decline in doubles (49,39,27) may mean his power is next to go. He also sported career lows in slugging percentage as well as BABIP, which means another season of sub .250 average (I`m being generous) unless he has a complete reversal of fortunes. Lastly, the fact that his flyball percentage has been gradually dipping since 2007 is another sign that we might have seen the end of 30-plus HR power from Uggla, making him incredibly less desirable in 2010.

Clint Barmes (ADP 314.00):

Despite his newly found power - his 23 homers in 2009 were 12 more than his previous career high - Barmes remains an unstable option at second base, and his surprisingly low ADP (he`s only being drafted in 27 percent of leagues) is a testament to that. There were red flags galore in 2009 after Barmes seemingly found himself in June (.314/4/19), a sharp decline hastily followed, as he batted below the Mendoza line the following two months. He did his best Russell Branyan impression - only if you cut Branyan`s plate discipline in half (I just got chills). Barmes unapologetically turned himself into an "all-or-nothing" player in 2009, and with Eric Young Jr. creeping in to take some at-bats away from Barmes this season, I`d tend to lean towards the "nothing."