MLB Mock Market Report - Early February Risers

When the calendar flips to February, the volume of mock drafts begins to increase and some of the early-season values begin to undergo correction. In most cases, there are three ways that a player`s value will shift significantly between now and Opening Day - hype, injuries and position battles.

Generally speaking, hype starts now when your favorite fantasy baseball publication arrives in your mailbox or at your local newsstand (the other two - injuries and position battles - usually start rolling after spring training gets underway). Most years, there are a handful of players that the industry experts all tend to like and subsequently, their draft-day cost increases as that information is gathered by preparing fantasy owners. Trust me, Zack Grienke and Felix Hernandez appeared on plenty of undervalued lists last winter. They weren`t sleepers by any stretch, but every publication and site liked those pitchers to not only be good, but deliver great value from their draft positions. It also works the other way - Chris Davis fooled plenty of industry analysts after making a rise into the top-75 in most standard 5 x 5 mixed leagues.

This week`s edition of the Mock Market report will focus on players who have had their ADP value increase by at least 10 percent over the last two weeks.

Ben Sheets, SP, OAK +27.2% - The obvious driving force behind Sheets` increase in value is that he`s finally employed by a major league team after missing the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his pitching elbow. Even with the increase, Sheets is currently sitting with an ADP of 243.84 - approximately an 18th-round pick for those in 14-team leagues and a 21nd round pick for those in 12-team formats. Two of the more well-known pitchers to have this injury are Jason Jennings and Andy Pettitte (a quick thank you to Will Carroll for the Pettitte refresher). Jennings` career never got back on track after surgery, but Pettitte actually returned to make 33 starts with a 6.92 K/9IP and 1.66 BB/9IP for the Astros after undergoing surgery. His strikeout rate never rebounded to the 8.57 K/9IP that he had in 2004 before the operation, but his command didn`t suffer upon returning the way it can for pitchers who`ve had Tommy John surgery.

Back to Sheets. His lengthy injury history would make him risky enough without the lost 2009. Is he still worth a dart? I would argue that he is - Oakland is a very friendly park for pitchers and Sheets` greatest weakness in Milwaukee (aside from missed starts) was the long ball. Given that the investment is minimal, the risk of losing him for eight to 10 starts is worth the upside of collecting an ERA in the 3.50-3.70 range and a WHIP below 1.250 when he`s healthy.

Jon Garland, SP, SD +23.5% - Everyone loves pitchers moving to Petco, but Garland isn`t your typical pitcher. In leagues that don`t tally strikeouts, there`s significantly less risk now that he`s in San Diego. That said, with a three-year average of 200 innings pitched with 99 strikeouts per season - including his 2009 spent with Arizona and Los Angeles in the National League - he`s much more valuable to major league teams than to fantasy owners. His 333.13 ADP means he`s still going undrafted in plenty of leagues, but let this be a reminder that there`s nothing special about his skill set.

Brett Anderson, SP, OAK +21.0% - Here`s the 2010 Hype Meter Pitcher of the Year frontrunner. Anderson is going to be heavily touted most places you look this draft season. It`s all for good reason - he`s got future ace potential and the future could be as early as this season after he closed out his rookie campaign with a very strong second half - including an 86:20 K:BB ratio as a 21-year-old. He`s well worth the 15th or 16th round pick that it will take to land him right now. In fact, he`s the type of player you can grab a couple of rounds earlier than that to avoid potentially missing him by playing the waiting game.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN +17.0% - Tearing up the Dominican Winter League and showing signs of his pre-surgery form, Liriano is vaulting up the draft board after racking up an impressive 47:5 K:BB ratio and 0.49 ERA in 37 innings over seven starts. Surprisingly, he`s going about two rounds later than Sheets right now. Likely because he`ll technically have to earn the No. 5 starter spot with the Twins this season by outperforming Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins during spring training. Three months from now, you may be laughing about the quality of your return on such a minimal high-upside investment.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI +16.8% - More from the hype machine. Upton has already moved up from early-third to late second-round status in many leagues. Like Anderson, there are a number of print and online publications touting him as the top outfielder on the board heading into 2011 and a top-five player at his position for this season. His age, breakout from 2009, and likely growth going forward make him an excellent early-round target.

Robinson Tejeda, SP, KAN +16.2% - Tejeda will have to compete with Kyle Davies for the fifth starters spot this spring after an impressive six-start run in September (3-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.105 WHIP and 32:20 K:BB ratio). If he doesn`t pan out as a starter, the Royals at least appear to have a useful bullpen arm in Tejeda after he`s compiled impressive numbers against right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Ultimately, there`s not much to explain his sudden boost in value, but Tejeda is an intriguing endgame target for those in AL-only and deeper mixed formats.

Next week, we`ll examine players tumbling down the draft board. This has been the Mock Market Report for February 4, 2010.